Dvd's Comming To An End?!~

[dee_madison2003]

i just read on yahoo that the entertainment industry are going to stop making dvd's and start creating televisions that enable you to watch a movie on your tv! so we all know what this means, no more downloading of movies when this happenes at least no to the ones that are new! well atleast this means they will be making thier money, any movie i download i always go and buy like bringing down the house, or scream! if i like the movie i will buy it! but no more dvd's means no more extra stuff! and i really like dvd's! WAAAAAAAAAH! lol what do you guys think about this?


Dee

[MetroStars]

I don't buy this at all...

your crazy woman :lol:

[dee_madison2003]

lol! im so not kidding! here read this


Virtual Delivery Seen as Death to Discs

LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Hollywood will win the war against illegal downloading but the battlefield will be littered with casualties, including the DVD and CD formats as physical means of distributing video and audio, according to a Forrester Research study released Tuesday.



The study predicts that in five years, CDs and DVDs will start to go the way of the vinyl LP as 33% of music sales and 19% of home video revenue shifts to streaming and downloading.


Part of that stems from the continued proliferation of illegal file trading, which has caused an estimated $700 million of lost CD sales since 1999. But it will be due more so to efforts by the studios, cable companies and telcos to finally deliver legitimate alternatives like video-on-demand, Forrester researcher Josh Bernoff said.


"The idea that anyone who has video-on-demand access to any movie they are interested in would get up and go to Blockbuster just doesn't make any sense," Bernoff said. "(The decline) begins with rentals, but eventually I think sales of these pieces of plastic are going to start going away because people will have access to whatever they want right there at their television set."


While consumers with VOD capabilities should grow within five years from 10 million to 35 million, or about a third of all U.S. television households, the association that represents disc makers does not believe that output will slow.


In fact, the Princeton, N.J.-based International Recording Media Assn. estimates that the number of DVDs replicated each year in North America will increase from a current 1.4 billion to 2.6 billion by 2008.


CD replications, though, are forecast by IRMA to fall by 15%-18% in the next five years, about half the rate of decline estimated by Forrester.


"The consensus in the manufacturing business is that there will be a decline, but we don't see as drastic a decline," IRMA president Charles Van Horn said. "We see growth (in video and DVD), and I don't think it will be because there are more pipelines to feed. It will be consumers buying discs."


Analysts also caution that the shift from hard copy to virtual distribution could be more gradual.


"People like walking into the store and seeing the product. It's part of the entertainment," Barrington Research Associates analyst James Goss said. "The studios would be just as happy to sell something in a streamed form or a hard disc form. But once you download it to your computer, you're probably going to burn it onto a CD or DVD, so you'd end up with the same optical storage issues."


The Forrester report lists a number of winners and losers from the expected changes.


Among the beneficiaries are Internet portals (news - web sites) that enable on-demand media services, broadband suppliers such as cable and telcos and the creative community, which would profit from the removal of manufacturing and distribution costs and constraints. AOL Time Warner's decision to sell off its disc manufacturing plants was said to be proof of this trend.


Media conglomerates could be among the losers if they do not have control of emerging means of distribution like VOD, Forrester said. Such retailers as Tower Records and Blockbuster will certainly feel the pain as sales and rentals shrink, though they may be able to sustain business by associating themselves with newer on-demand services. Major retailers including Wal-Mart and Best Buy are expected to survive by shifting CD and DVD floor space to sales of media devices.


The shift could also present several opportunities for companies if they move quickly.


Television companies have about three more years to release shows on DVD. By 2006, it is estimated that negotiations will start to focus on making content available on cable and Internet "basic VOD" tiers.


Movies studios are also urged to press the development of Internet-based alternatives to cable VOD for movies-on-demand.


"On-demand media services have the potential to turn pirate losses into gains even as they break the disc-based shackles that now hold back entertainment," the report concludes.





Reuters/Hollywood Reporter

from yahoo! so i dont get in trouble! lol


Dee

[MetroStars]

Intrsting, but i hardley think this is going 2 happen any time soon, wot about the big companies (HMV Virgin) that sell DVD's and shit like that, they wudn't let this happen, maybe in the distant future, but DVD's arnt going anywhere... ;)

[3rd gen noob]

as i said in the temp forum:

"people will be able to record streaming video when/if it becomes available anyway

i suppose no dvd's or cd's just means it takes less time for media to spread, due to lack of need to rip data

after thinking about this a little more, this proposal is rather elitist against users who have low data transfer internet solutions

for example, how exactly does a 56k user stream video or audio?

it does sound a little fishy"

[dee_madison2003]

it does sound fishy, but then to the demand for dsl and high speed connections will go up and that means so will the price, and if that happens lots of people will most likley go back to dial up so in a way i guess you guys are right because dvd's are like the future they just cant stop making them, and also does this mean they wont even sell blank cd's anymore? i mean if they stop making dvd's does that mean blank discs to?


Dee

[3RA1N1AC]

it ain't gonna happen very soon. most people still do not have broadband and they're not going to let hollywood force them to get it. and there's the problem of the shared connection... is this video-on-demand thing going to leech bandwidth off of a regular broadband connection, so if the kids are playing online video games, listening to streaming music, or you have multiple televisions to receive different movies simultaneously... are you actually going to experience LAG while watching TELEVISION? that would be ridiculous.

anyone who thinks streaming video is going to replace home video is out of their frickin' minds, simply because DVD is not the ultimate home video format. High Definition DVD and Blue Laser DVD are on the horizon, even as we speak, promising even better quality than DVD, and certainly MUCH BETTER than you could stream over a broadband connection. consumers would simply not let this be denied to them, in favor of lower quality streaming video which is subject to the problems of internet traffic congestion.

just because a talking head with a terribly skewed vision of technology says "this new product is the future, so say goodbye to DVD," that doesn't make it true. he's prolly the same guy who said Betamax was the future.

[dee_madison2003]

LOL!


so true my friend. i mean i for one would not watch tv if it lagged! thats like saying we need to update our tvs like we need to our computers if they lag on a video game, these are people that obvioulsy dont know entertainment! lol


Dee

[Jay]

no it aint happeining

[Darth Sushi]

http://www.claybennett.com/images/archivetoons/chicken_little.jpg

[timeisntreal]

yea i dont believe it. Other VOD systems have been tryed out & are very hard to matain. Besides I for one much rather be able to buy a movie & watch it any time then pay 50 cents to watch it once.....

[Nesseight]

I didn't buy a DVD player just for it to be replaced in 10 years time, and I simply won't buy premium TV or have an ISP that sends anything besides traditional cable over my already over-priced cable lines. The hell with lagging TV, if that crap lags my games and depreciates one of my few escapes from all of the annoying politics, violence, and war I will not rush out to buy it. The only reason I even have a TV is to watch the news, so I can get annoyed with the world, then play my FPS pretending that every frag eliminates a real terrorist, drug dealer, or MPAA/RIAA member.

Anyway, DVD's won't come to an end because nobody wants to see lag burst and compression distortion in low res video/audio after they just paid > $1000 for a HDTV and sound system. Even if DVD's do come to an end, it won't stop pirates, infact it might do the opposite of what they hoped for when everyone resorts to the internet to get away from their premium lag box and resort to something of decent quality.

Personally I don't see how they lose profits to pirates, or how they can even determine if they do. People whom I may or may not know usually see the movie in the theatre, download it, then buy it when it comes out. If movie companies expect people to pay theatre prices more than once then they are pretty stupid and should release the movie a week after it's been in the theater and not a year, then people will be able to buy it before they get someone to burn it onto a disk.

The movie industry needs to take off their handi-cap and money-skin boots and put on their thinking-cap.

WHY THE HELL DO DVD'S COST MORE THAN VHS'S ANYWAY?

[RGX]

you can get superbit dvds, dvds with the extras removed to make room for even better quality and audio....4.6 gigs of pure video and audio quality must be good :huh:

Saw an advert for them in Empire, had to read it twice

[3RA1N1AC]

Originally posted by RGX@4 September 2003 - 10:59
you can get superbit dvds, dvds with the extras removed to make room for even better quality and audio....4.6 gigs of pure video and audio quality must be good  :huh:

Saw an advert for them in Empire, had to read it twice
you need to have a really nice, big television, to notice the difference.

[Gre1]

I doubt this will happen at all.

[ezyryder]

I saw something similar to this a year or two ago on "Tomorrows World" they had a type of tv where you could select tv shows you missed or movies and stream them to your tv and demonstrated it.

I'm not sure of the details, or if it's the same thing, this just brought back that memory so thought i'd share.

[mogadishu]

ehh.. if you have adsl lagging woudlnt be a problem because you dont share like with a cable line. thats why i have adsl. its not as fast sometimes but its always the same speeed.

[Twigboy]

I remember hearing this about video tapes awhile back in the 90's,but they're still bringing new releases out on tape.
I think it will be some time before this happens.

[3RA1N1AC]

Originally posted by mogadishu@5 September 2003 - 10:44
ehh.. if you have adsl lagging woudlnt be a problem because you dont share like with a cable line. thats why i have adsl. its not as fast sometimes but its always the same speeed.
i meant sharing WITHIN your house, not with your neighbors. many people own routers nowadays, so that they can connect more than one computer to the internet, or game consoles, or any other electronics that use internet connections.

for example: one house with an ADSL connection may use a router to connect a PC, a Playstation/Xbox, and another device to the internet simultaneously. add a streaming video service to that, and there's definitely going to be lag.

personally, i think a video-on-demand service may become successful in the future, since it is essentially pay-per-view without a concrete schedule. but it would most likely be based on cable/satellite, rather than internet. the internet just doesn't provide the sort of reliability that's required, for a service like video-on-demand. and even then, i doubt that it would replace home video formats like DVD and its successors, because home video is still hugely profitable and it will continue to be for many years.

[vader]

Simply Don't support it and it will fade. Buy a couple of extra cd's each year, don;t support the new product. Unless the rippers find an advantage to using it. Tell all p2p users not to support it and it will die off.

[foot loose]

u no wat who cares coz when industries come up wit new teconoligy 2 increase they revinue (money) other people wit come up wit ways around it like hackers,crackers and so. they will never be able 2 make anythink foolprof coz there is always some1 dat is 1 step ahead ;)

[dmorgan89]

they would lose money if they did that. they aren't that stupid. everything revolves around money and they would make more money keeping dvds and vhs even with illegal downloading than doing this. they would have to make them very cheap.

[Nevin]

The thing that will replace DVD's will be blue laser DVD's. 16 or so full length DVD Quality movie's will be able to be put on 1 disk.

[stalin]

Lets see...
Can go to local free parking multiplex and watch latest release for about 6GBP (thats about an hours pay, on avrg)

6 months later I could rent it frm BB for about 3.50GBP
or buy it for 16 to 25 GBP (who the hell wants to buy these things? Howmany times you going to watch it?)

12 mnths (or maybe less) later for 3.50GBP I can watch it on my SKY box (VOD)

A little later I can go to my local library and hire it for a week for 1.50GBP to 2.50 GBP

Or within 5 years, if its any good, it will be on TV and watch it for zero margiinal cost

My local multiplex won't let me smoke or pause the film when I need to piss
also I must find time for it
Likewise with BB I got to get in the car TWICE within 24hrs

THIS FILM BETTER BE GOOD

Library great, 1.50, well if I do'nt see it I'll get it out again next week

SKY BOX- Bit of a pain, enter PIN etc wait a bit, macrovision so can't time shift it
but no need for car keys, no need for parking, sort of can catch it again if the phone rings
Used it twice, maybe 3 times
DVD used > 10 times twice- BB twice!
Multiplex, last went there it was 1990 something!!!

Spot a trend?

:ph34r:

[Adster]

Its a load of bullshit

[six]

How is that going to prevent piracy?
people will find ways to get those movies for free,
you can copy it using tivo or a dvd-recorder,
upload to irc or p2p networks,
voila!
piracy can never be stopped.

[Damnatory]

I can't believe no one mentioned it, but:
Even if they did switch to this method, wouldn't that require that you buy a TV capable of recieving the download stream??? Who in thier right mind would go out and spend another $3,000 on another 42" Flat screen tv, just so they can get a couple of movies.

I agree Blue laser DVD's "are the future." I have even "heard rumor" of a red laser DVD that could hold up to 200 full length DVD quality movies. That would definatly have my vote any day, screw spending all the $$ to get a new VOD compliant TV, and then spending $$ to download a movie.

This won't happen simply because people don't have the money to buy all that shit. Hell, the majority of use download them because we would rather preview a movie than waste $20 on a movie that we're going to hate.

If it ever does come to the point that this is going to happen, you guys can have it. I'm going to still be investing my money into the DVD industry.

EDIT: I heard mention as to this could control piracy... :w00t: If this is true, then people would never need to go and sit in a theatre with a cam, and people would never need to encode them. They are already in a format ready for watching. It just makes piracy a whole lot easier...

[Yac Nac]

:huh: A movie can flop in general release....BUT, at times makes more in VHS & DVD release. Now, would you cut off your arm to avoid ofthers from duping it? :o the dvd format has come along way and i dont think that the industry will abanden its cash COW...... :unsure: anyhoo, if any other encriyption is introduced it will be cracked sooner or later....... <_< I think things will stay the same for a long while..... :unsure:

[3RA1N1AC]

Originally posted by stalin@5 September 2003 - 18:06
Library great, 1.50, well if I do&#39;nt see it I&#39;ll get it out again next week
lol, your libraries ain&#39;t free? wotta gyp. :lol:

public libraries in the u.s. charge nothing... but unfortunately (at many libraries) it means all the good videos are constantly lent out, so you have to find &#39;em in the catalogue and join a queue before you can get &#39;em. <_<