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Billy_Dean
12-08-2003, 12:21 PM
This week, a US Air Force plane shot up the house of a "known" terrorist in Aghanistan. The US government claims it didn't know there were young kids playing ball nearby, subsequently, nine of them were killed, along with two adults, the "target" got away. I wonder how they would have "found out" the kids were there, had they wanted to know. You can bet your life the plane wasn't flying low enough to check.

These deaths are another nail in the coffin of western\muslim relations. My Afghani friends are mortified, one of them asked why special forces troops aren't killng these targets, I was wondering the same thing. Who targeted the house in the first place?

The following article, quite long I'm afraid, makes the claim that Bin Laden, dead or alive, is winning.

I see a lot of truth in that statement.



Jihad has worked - the world is now split in two

Ewen MacAskill
Monday December 8, 2003
The Guardian

Osama bin Laden, two years and three months after the New York and Washington attacks that were part of his jihad against America, appears to be winning. He has lost his base in Afghanistan, as well as many colleagues and fighters, and his communications and finances have been disrupted. He may be buried under rubble in Afghanistan or, as Washington and London assume, be hiding in Pakistan's tribal areas. But from Kandahar to Baghdad, from Istanbul to Riyadh, blood is being shed in the name of Bin Laden's jihad.

On Saturday, a Taliban bomb went off in the bazaar in Kandahar, aimed at US soldiers but wounding 20 Afghan civilians. On the same day, US planes targeted a "known terrorist" in Ghazni, also in Afghanistan, killing nine children. The deaths of the children will not help the US win hearts and minds in Afghanistan, or elsewhere; indeed, they will alienate Muslim opinion worldwide.

There is a tendency in the west to play down - or ignore - the extent of Bin Laden's success. The US and UK governments regard mentioning it as disloyal or heretical. But look back on interviews by Bin Laden in the 1990s to see what he has achieved. He can tick off one of the four objectives he set himself, and, arguably, a second.

The objectives were: the removal of US soldiers from Saudi soil; the overthrow of the Saudi government; the removal of Jews from Israel; and worldwide confrontation between the west and the Muslim world.

His success in the first is clear-cut. Bin Laden's animosity towards the US began in earnest with the arrival of tens of thousands of US soldiers in his home country, Saudi Arabia, for the war against Iraq in 1991. He objected to their presence because Saudi Arabia holds Islam's two holiest sites, Mecca and Medina.

After September 11, the US did exactly what Bin Laden wanted. It pulled almost all its troops out of Saudi Arabia and moved its regional headquarters to Qatar. Relations between Washington and Riyadh have remained strained since September 11, not surprising given that the bulk of the attackers were from Saudi Arabia.

Bin Laden has not succeeded in his second objective of overthrowing the Saudi regime. But its position is much more precarious than when he first called for it to be deposed. The US government's ambivalence towards Riyadh has created jitters in the kingdom. The Saudi authorities, after a decade in denial, are now confronting al-Qaida and cracking down on preachers regarded as too fiery. Saudi Arabia, in spite of its oil wealth, has huge economic and social problems -including a large, disgruntled pool of unemployed youths - that leave it vulnerable. Reports of firefights between the Saudi authorities and al-Qaida-related groups are now commonplace.

Bin Laden has not achieved his third objective either: the destruction of Israel. In spite of its suffering at the hands of suicide bombers, Israel is in the ascendant, with strict controls over the daily lives of Palestinians, frequentassassination of suspected bombers and other militants, and a continued land grab in the West Bank. But the one-sided nature of the conflict and the emotions it arouses beyond its boundaries have helped Bin Laden achieve the fourth and most important of his objectives: polarisation.

In February 1997, he predicted such polarisation at a time when it seemed unlikely: "The war will not only be between the people of the two sacred mosques [Saudi Arabia] and the Americans, but it will be between the Islamic world and the Americans and their allies, because this war is a new crusade led by America against the Islamic nations."

Bin Laden, assuming he is alive and wired to the internet, would have enjoyed the Times on Saturday, which devoted the best part of a page to a story headlined "the new enemy within", warning of a potential bombing threat in the UK from a British-born sleeper from the Muslim community. That such a possibility is no longer regarded as unlikely shows the extent to which the world has changed.

Tony Blair and the foreign secretary, Jack Straw, have repeatedly argued that the "war on terrorism" is aimed at a small group of Muslim terrorists and the failed states that harbour them. They will, rightly, deny that it is a crusade against Muslims.

Last week, for the first time, the Foreign Office published a list of its policy objectives, of which the war against terrorism was top, and acknowledged the danger of polarisation. Looking at the next 10 years, the Foreign Office said the battle of ideologies between market economics and Marxism that dominated 20th-century Europe appears to be giving way to battles over religion.

"T he possible confrontation of ideas most likely to affect the UK and other western democracies in the early 21st century stems from religion and culture," according to the Foreign Office strategy document, UK International Priorities. "Religious belief is coming back to the fore as a motivating force in international relations; in some cases it is distorted to cloak political purposes. The question will arise most obviously in relations between western democracies and someIslamic countries or groups."

Bin Laden's September 11 attacks are mainly to blame for this polarisation. But the responses of George Bush have exacerbated this, with his two wars and the failure to tackle the Israel-Palestinian conflict. Two years after the occupation of Afghanistan, US control is patchy. Outside cities, travel is risky, and even within them, life can be dangerous, as the Kandahar bombing demonstrated. The Taliban have regrouped and are returning in strength.

Perhaps the war on Afghanistan was necessary - but the war on Iraq was not. There was no link between Saddam Hussein and Bin Laden. The US is fighting on two fronts, in control of neither country. Much of the resistance in Iraq to the US is from Saddam loyalists or criminal or tribal groups. But the US and British claim there are also elements of al-Qaida.

Instead of the war on Iraq, Bush would have been better, as Blair continually advised him, to deal first with Israel-Palestine. Although the US secretary of state, Colin Powell, last week showed interest in the Geneva accord, the work of the Israeli-Palestinian peace camp, Bush has dropped any pretence of a US that acts as an independent arbitrator in the conflict. He has placed himself alongside Sharon. He has said he supports the creation of a Palestinian state, but shows no desire to use America's political and financial power over Israel to try to bring it about. The resolution of the Israel-Palestinian conflict, however, is the only immediate way of reversing the dangerous polarisation of the world that Bin Laden seeks.

· Ewen MacAskill is the Guardian's diplomatic editor

Source (http://www.guardian.co.uk/alqaida/story/0,12469,1102262,00.html)


:)

balamm
12-08-2003, 12:47 PM
You have friends ? :blink:



:P


Of course he's winning. He's surrounded by other idiots who defend him to their own demise. Nothing short of Apocalypse will stop stop that bunch.

ilw
12-08-2003, 01:32 PM
I think its still unknown whether they got the terrorist, the locals (supposdly pro taleban) claim he left days before and also claim that it wasn't his house, the governor of the region said it was his house and the US claim that the man killed was the terrorist. I heard the death toll was also 10 not 11, 9 kids and 1 guy.

its hard to judge if Osama is winning, he does seem to be making some progress towards a couple of his objectives, but I still don't see him ever achieving the level of conflict he desires. He has succeeded in making Al Qaeda the de facto islamic militant group, I'm sure they're more widely known and have more 'applicants' than all the other groups put together.

Rat Faced
12-08-2003, 01:49 PM
Nostradamus predicted all this...

In his predictions, Europe gets the brunt of the crap and the war between Islam and the new world exhausts both powers so much that "The Dragon" (China) steps in to take control, starting Armageddon.

Just a thought for you all :P








I'll get me coat.... :blink:

Alucard1475
12-08-2003, 02:18 PM
Originally posted by Rat Faced@8 December 2003 - 23:49
Nostradamus predicted all this...

In his predictions, Europe gets the brunt of the crap and the war between Islam and the new world exhausts both powers so much that "The Dragon" (China) steps in to take control, starting Armageddon.

Just a thought for you all :P








I'll get me coat.... :blink:
Yeah, humans can be sooooo stupid. Everybody's urging for power.

It's all the big guys, the stupid leaders who get the last word and who destroy everything.

Who the hell votes for those guys?? :angry:

Biggles
12-08-2003, 08:49 PM
I am not convinced anyone can "win" this struggle either way. The west can maintain a degree of security (and limit the attacks) and Islam (militant variety) can hold the tide of change for a while.

Rather than any one glorious victory either way it is more than likely to simply fizzle out. This may take five years or it may take 50. One thing is for sure, at the end both the USA and Islam will still be around; albeit with perhaps slightly different perspectives on each other.

The incident in Afghanistan was a foolish mistake and presumably there will no more gung ho bombings unless the target is sealed up tighter than a drum. The propaganda coup to AQ of the deaths of those children was probably the best thing that has happened for them in last few months if not longer. All in a bad show, as Biggles would have said.

J'Pol
12-08-2003, 08:51 PM
worldwide confrontation between the west and the Muslim world.


If this is one of his four stated objectives then for the sake of everyone, in both the Muslim World and the West, we can only hope that he is not winning.

One has to wonder what percentage of this "Muslim World" actually wants full scale confrontation with "The West".

RAM%ROD
12-09-2003, 01:19 AM
The wonderful world of collateral damage and the unfairness of life.

SciManAl
12-09-2003, 04:15 AM
cat and mouse game... each time the cat eats a mouse there is afamily more of them that are that much more pissed that thier mom got eaten...

MagicNakor
12-09-2003, 05:45 AM
Mice generally don't get angry at cats.

:ninja:

clocker
12-09-2003, 07:42 AM
Every breath that bin Laden takes, or every day that he is not conclusively proven to be dead, is a victory for him.
Having been iconized by Bush as the human face of terrorism, his very existence is proof to his followers that Islam ( at least Islam as they define it), can stand up to the West and flourish.
Another tactical error by the current administration.

j2k4
12-09-2003, 07:58 AM
Originally posted by clocker@9 December 2003 - 03:42
Every breath that bin Laden takes, or every day that he is not conclusively proven to be dead, is a victory for him.
Having been iconized by Bush as the human face of terrorism, his very existence is proof to his followers that Islam ( at least Islam as they define it), can stand up to the West and flourish.
Another tactical error by the current administration.
Curiousity question, Clocker:

What would you think if the Church committee hadn't sterilized the CIA back in the '70s, and the level and quality of intelligence had remained high?

I know you aren't a fan of the CIA, but are you of the opinion better intel would have helped?

clocker
12-09-2003, 04:11 PM
Originally posted by j2k4@9 December 2003 - 00:58

Curiousity question, Clocker:

What would you think if the Church committee hadn't sterilized the CIA back in the '70s, and the level and quality of intelligence had remained high?

I know you aren't a fan of the CIA, but are you of the opinion better intel would have helped?
Of course better intelligence would have helped, j2, although the quality of pre-Church committee information is debatable...remember the Bay of Pigs?

That was not the thrust of my point, however.

Bush, everfond of polishing his image as a tough guy ( insert pics of carrier landing here) raised bin Laden to the status of "official face of terrorism" and milked it for months. Me against him, as it were.
The failure of our forces to find him has only made his continued existence a PR goldmine for other terrorist groups.

And where is Saddam anyway?
Another "I'm going to take down that bully" stance gone awry...

J'Pol
12-09-2003, 06:23 PM
Originally posted by clocker@9 December 2003 - 17:11
And where is Saddam anyway?
Another "I'm going to take down that bully" stance gone awry...
You think so ? I beg to differ.

I would suggest that saddam has quite comprehensively been taken down. If he has any influence left, which I seriously doubt, it is as naught to that which he held before.

The same goes for the entire regime which ruled a country through terror (and had the manuals to show how to do it).

clocker
12-09-2003, 06:44 PM
Originally posted by J&#39;Pol+9 December 2003 - 11:23--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (J&#39;Pol @ 9 December 2003 - 11:23)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-clocker@9 December 2003 - 17:11
And where is Saddam anyway?
Another "I&#39;m going to take down that bully" stance gone awry...
You think so ? I beg to differ.

I would suggest that saddam has quite comprehensively been taken down. If he has any influence left, which I seriously doubt, it is as naught to that which he held before.

The same goes for the entire regime which ruled a country through terror (and had the manuals to show how to do it). [/b][/quote]
I disagree.

Hardly a night goes by that we are not faced with more images of US soldiers ambushed by remnants of Saddam&#39;s forces ( or their sympathisers). Often, this imagery is accompanied by the question of whether or not Hussien is in fact still directing the resistence from his hideout.

Again, his actual involvement is irrelevant in my opinion.
The fact that the possibility exists is a plus for those arrayed against us.

Bush made a big deal about overthrowing the Baathist regime and bringing it&#39;s leaders to justice.
Saddam is still at large and several high ranking officials of his regime have actually been retained by US forces in positions of power.

The administration was responsible for directing attention specifically to these two men rather than focusing on the nebulous ( and sound byte unfriendly) subject of terrorism in general.
Thir inability to actually follow through and produce the bodies ( either living or dead) of these two enemies of the free world makes them ( and us, by extension) appear ineffectual and weak.
Bush picked the targets, why shouldn&#39;t he be held accountable for missing them?

spanishpete
12-09-2003, 10:07 PM
winning what the man is dying in agony from kidney failure. he has turned the peaceful world against islam . in fact that man has set back the cause of islam back to the middle ages where it belongs. that filth has bought the name of islam into disgust. truth no opinion.

J'Pol
12-09-2003, 11:25 PM
Originally posted by clocker+9 December 2003 - 19:44--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (clocker &#064; 9 December 2003 - 19:44)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>
Originally posted by J&#39;Pol@9 December 2003 - 11:23
<!--QuoteBegin-clocker@9 December 2003 - 17:11
And where is Saddam anyway?
Another "I&#39;m going to take down that bully" stance gone awry...
You think so ? I beg to differ.

I would suggest that saddam has quite comprehensively been taken down. If he has any influence left, which I seriously doubt, it is as naught to that which he held before.

The same goes for the entire regime which ruled a country through terror (and had the manuals to show how to do it).
I disagree.

Hardly a night goes by that we are not faced with more images of US soldiers ambushed by remnants of Saddam&#39;s forces ( or their sympathisers). Often, this imagery is accompanied by the question of whether or not Hussien is in fact still directing the resistence from his hideout.

Again, his actual involvement is irrelevant in my opinion.
The fact that the possibility exists is a plus for those arrayed against us.

Bush made a big deal about overthrowing the Baathist regime and bringing it&#39;s leaders to justice.
Saddam is still at large and several high ranking officials of his regime have actually been retained by US forces in positions of power.

The administration was responsible for directing attention specifically to these two men rather than focusing on the nebulous ( and sound byte unfriendly) subject of terrorism in general.
Thir inability to actually follow through and produce the bodies ( either living or dead) of these two enemies of the free world makes them ( and us, by extension) appear ineffectual and weak.
Bush picked the targets, why shouldn&#39;t he be held accountable for missing them?[/b][/quote]
You genuinely feel that saddam may still be alive and may be organising "resistance" equates to a man whose word was absolute law within a country.

Who was so tyrannical that he could order the death of thousands of Kurds, with no argument. Whose people lived in absolute terror and disappeared without a word. Whose families couldn&#39;t even find out what happened to them, for fear of their own lives.

Whose secret police ruled by absolute terror amongst the populace. Who made videos of them blowing living people up. Who tortured and murdered with impunity.

Whose sons had rape squads and would pick women at random from the streets. Then take them away from their husbands, who could do nothing. Who set starving dogs on a woman who refused to consent. Who extracted their own soldiers teeth with pliers, on a whim.

One of the biggest, cruelest tyrants in the world may now be organising resistance against the allied forces.

Like I say, I beg to differ.

Biggles
12-11-2003, 11:02 PM
J&#39;Pol

Although I don&#39;t disagree with one word of your description of Saddam&#39;s regime I think it over-simplifies the Iraq political landscape to say that the Iraqi people with one voice rejoiced over his departure. The scenes of jubilation at the fall of Baghdad are a case in point - for such a huge city very very few took to the streets. Whereas the streets of Paris where thronged with flowers and rejoicing women and children Baghdad had a rampage of a few thousand looters and muggers. It was not an auspicious start.

Saddam is, as you point out, pretty much universally hated by the Kurds and the Marsh Arabs. Most of his atrocities were carried out on these ethnic groups. Like many dictators of the past, he was a charismatic man who could be generous to those he favoured. Many in the Sunni areas really did love him. They were raised to love him and did so without question. Likewise these people still fear a future Iraq without his protection for their tribal groups. Iraq is in flux and there are probably many groups taking to arms to secure their little bit of the power cake regardless of what Saddam does or says now.

I don&#39;t think Saddam is organising resistance but I do think he is still alive and is a rallying point for anti-coalition fighters and focal point for pro-coalition fears. He is, however, in his late 60s and is unlikely to form the basis for any long term anti-coalition strategy. I suspect his mantle will pass (if it passes on - who knows we may succeed) to whoever welds the forces of disorder in Iraq into a cohesive body.

In a country where tribe is more important than political parties it will not be easy to install a stable government. We could be bankrolling a pro-west government in Iraq for years and still see it crumble before our eyes in acrimony and in-fighting. However, perhaps I am being unduly pessimistic - I did, however, think Ian Paisley&#39;s days were over and consequently am somewhat wary of claims that peace and reconcilliation are just around the corner..

J'Pol
12-11-2003, 11:56 PM
Biggles

I didn&#39;t say that the people rejoiced as one. Given the position, no right thinking person would have expected them to. They were used to being the subjects of a despot with absolute power. One would not expect them to rejoice his removal within a few days of it happening. They simply would not have believed it.

I merely responed to the concept that the bully had not been taken down. A position which I reject unreservedly. In order to do this I attempted to compare (juxtapose if you will) the position as was, to the position now. He may still have some influence, I really don&#39;t know, however it is as nothing to that which he had before. He is at best a toothless tiger and a figurehead. To me the bully has been taken down.

If my previous efforts were unclear I apologise.

Biggles
12-12-2003, 12:12 AM
:)

Fair point - I perhaps mis-read your position

He certainly isn&#39;t washing in gold bath tubs anymore (unless he has one stashed away in whatever bunker he is hidden in). I agree that he is unlikely to figure in Iraqi politics in any significant way in the future - although sometimes these figures have an influence beyond their shelf life.

I think Clocker does make a valid point regarding an over-emphasis by both Bush an Blair on the targeting of Saddam (and Omar and OBL come to think of it). By and large, we have not been particularly successful in tracking these people down.

On a seperate note, I see I spoke too soon regarding gung ho bombing in Afghanistan and that a further six children were killed yesterday in another abortive raid. According to the report I read, Afghan officials in Kabul are becoming increasingly worried about the effect these incidents are having on their attempts to convince the village populations to stop supporting the Taliban.

Are we snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?

J'Pol
12-12-2003, 12:24 AM
Biggles,

I think we both know that these posturings are more for the masses than anything else.

John Q Public needs to aim his bile somewhere, he does not wish to consider the intricacies of international diplomacy, nor does he wish to consider that there are shades of grey. He needs a White Hat vs Black Hat "Western" scenario.

To that end our leaders are forced to play to this lowest common denominator need, for simplicity of cause. I do not for one second believe that either of them actually believe the press releases. One would hope that they are more au fait with the actual intelligence. They will rarely be able to speak about the reality of the situation, they would not be allowed to.

It reminds me of the Jack Nicolson court scene in "A Few Good Men". It is more accurate than most people would like to believe.

Biggles
12-12-2003, 12:33 AM
Yes, I think that is fair comment.

Rumsfeld always strikes me as someone who can barely be bothered to even pretend for the game any more. I actually quite like his candour although some of his ideas seem a tad... well extreme.

I was a great fan of Yes Minister and I thought it summed up the corridors of power rather well. The "ok, that is what is happening but what do we tell them that sounds plausible?" struck a chord somehow. :ph34r:

J'Pol
12-12-2003, 12:44 AM
Originally posted by Biggles@12 December 2003 - 01:33
Yes, I think that is fair comment.

Rumsfeld always strikes me as someone who can barely be bothered to even pretend for the game any more. I actually quite like his candour although some of his ideas seem a tad... well extreme.

I was a great fan of Yes Minister and I thought it summed up the corridors of power rather well.&nbsp; The "ok, that is what is happening but what do we tell them that sounds plausible?" struck a chord somehow.&nbsp; :ph34r:
I too am a great fan of the ultimate Whitehall Farce. There was felling, deep down of .... Yes, that seems about right. It just kind of makes sense that it works that way. God is in his heaven and all is well with the world.

We seem to have spiraled to accord. Without a fresh injection of opinion there is little left to say but ....

Alex H
12-12-2003, 04:24 AM
Originally posted by J&#39;Pol@9 December 2003 - 18:23
The same goes for the entire regime which ruled a country through terror (and had the manuals to show how to do it).
Do you mean the ones with "CIA Operations & Training Manual" written on the front cover? :P

I&#39;m a big fan of Yes Minister too. You know how Jay and Lynne found the inspiration for the episodes they wrote 25 years ago? They went to the library archives and looked at the papers from the 40s and 50s. Funny how the issues and poitics are still the same.

http://www.bobharris.com/images/light_blow_with_an_axe.GIF