Global Warming

[lynx]

Rat Faced, I think you've missed my point (though I admit I didn't put it very clearly).

Let's assume their "likely" event of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melting, leading to a 7 metre rise in sea level. This ice sheet covers less than 1/250th of the earth's oceans' surface, yet it will have absorbed the same amount of energy equivalent to heating water 80C to a depth of 7 metres across all the oceans, or 7C to a depth of 80 metres. Even though the greenhouse effect doesn't have an effect down to anything like this level, I'll use that as a basis. Of course, this assumes that the ice is already at 0C, but it is much colder than that.

If we assume that the energy distrubution is constant around the world, energy would be being absorbed by the sea at exactly the same rate. So the same amount of water would actually heat up 250 times as fast. Since this scenario is supposed to take place over the next 200 years, this warming would have to take place at a rate of 7*250/200C per year. Take into account the fact that the ice is NOT at 0C and you would have to have warming at a rate of around 12C per annum, at least.

Sea level rises of about 50cm over the next 200 years would require surface warming (to a depth of 80m) of about 1C per annum, which would most certainly be detectable. But actual temperature rises approaching 1C per decade have not been reliably reported, and that wouldn't produce a rise of more than 5cm.

Therer are some areas of the world which would be threatened by a 5cm rise so it isn't desirable, but that report is simply nonsense. As I said earlier, some people just haven't done their sums.

Edit: earth's oceans'

[bigboab]

84 meters, and if all three ice caps melt

7 meters is if only Greenlands melts

and i think its 13 meters if Greenland and one of the Antarctic caps melts (cant remember which one though, and im late for work now so it'll have to wait until this evening )


Boab, its copied from The Scotsman newspaper..

As Lynx says though, its only one of a series of possible senarios, and the news jumped on the last one

Much more likely and would happen much sooner is the Gulf Stream "Turning Off" because of all the extra fresh water in the North Atlantic... this would give the UK the climate of Alaska

We have been through all this scenario before.
Think of the Arctic as an ice cube and that all but negates any perceptible rise in the ocean levels from that source.

As for the rest, every inch of the land mass of the world would require to be covered by about 20 foot of snow(Or the equivalent if you take into account impactation) and for that snow to melt completely for the Worlds oceans levels to rise about 12 inches. I dont have the exact figures but if you work them out for yourself. Land mass is about one third of the Ocean mass. Add this to what Lynx has said and it all looks like sensationalism by that particular paper.

[Rat Faced]

Much more likely and would happen much sooner is the Gulf Stream "Turning Off" because of all the extra fresh water in the North Atlantic... this would give the UK the climate of Alaska

There is already evidence this will happen, which is why i mentioned it.

The extra fresh water from rivers is already making a perceptable change.


So, we have a choice of senerios to look out for:

Flooded, Palm Trees or Ice Storms...


My bet is the Ice Storms, but not before a couple more bloody scorching summers and bloody mild winters.

[bigboab]

I hope hell freezes over. This would mean I have a chance with a certain 'young' lady.

[Biggles]

Nice to see most of Scotland remains intact though. If (notwithstanding Lynx's trashing of teh science) this happens will all this warm water make Scotland the new Caribbean?

I have this sneaking suspicion that whatever happens we will get all the remaining ice on the planet.

[Rat Faced]

Didnt know you were a highlander Biggles

What do you wear under that skirt?

[bigboab]

Didnt know you were a highlander Biggles

What do you wear under that skirt?

Nothing is worn under the skirt kilt. It's all in perfect working order.

[Biggles]

Didnt know you were a highlander Biggles

What do you wear under that skirt?

Nothing is worn under the skirt kilt. It's all in perfect working order.

You beat me to it.

I fear I am indeed a bit of a teuchter.

[DanB]

Its called global warming and apparently its started, so why has summer only just started?

Surely there is some room for legal action under the Trade Descriptions Act?


RF are you sure it was The Scotsman and not The Sun? They had the same map and similar story too

[manker]

My bet is the Ice Storms, but not before a couple more bloody scorching summers and bloody mild winters.

So in about 3 years.

These fecking doom-mongers have gotten all precise on us