All of this has been at the top of my agenda for many months, and will continue due to:
YES - BR blanks (25G or dual layer 50G) are WAY too expensive, although the burners are fairly reasonable (~$200). A quick check of a couple of my favorite vendors (that I've bought DVD5/9's from for ages) shows that the going price on BD blanks is between $10/ea for inkjet printable 25G, and 50GB at just about double that. One can fine the cheapies at a bit less (say $7 or so, maybe $6 on sale), but...
It's all like DVD5's were just about 10 year ago. Sure, the prices will come down, but how fast is always the question.
As to hard drive prices and using some kind of MASSIVE storage unit (I'm having an unRAID box built as I type this), and running a Popcorn Hour box to interface the HD set, the fact of the matter is, that if one recodes the HD/BR disc down to DVD9 sizes (utilizing h/x.254), unless you've got a $20K display, and REALLY good eyes and ears (not to mention that $20K 'hd' 7.1 surround sound system!), the difference between it and the 'full' blu-ray disc are minimal at best, and in double-blind tests pretty much a wash. You'll find on usenet the sizing of recodes is all over the place, but there are three distinct camps, one that tries to do them to DVD5/9 sizes, another that targets the bit rate (10,000bps seems to be the favorite), and another that doesn't seem to care WHAT size/rate they end up with. The best (quality) recodes I've d/l'ed have been 'The Dark Knight' (dts), and 'Fifth Element' (dts). I'd put up each of them against the original BR disc, and I'll bet you couldn't tell the difference; and both are DVD9 sizes.
So, the cost analysis is that even with drive costs continuing the downward spiral (I'm watching the 2TB drives with particular interest, as now that Seagate has their drive out, the WD 2TB price has fallen off a cliff, over $100 less than just a month ago!). the fact remains that any array you care to build is going to cost some 2.5-3 tims more expensive per Gigabyte than removable, burnable, DVD5/9 discs.
Not that I don't burn up some drive space on someting that looks interesting. But until 1TB drives get below about $30, or BD Blanks lower than $1/ea, I'll hedge my bets.
Now, I'm still trying to figure out just exactly how many drives I'm going to fill that server up once it arrive on my doorstep...
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