Will BT die ?

[mievmo]

What do you think ?
Will it die someday ? :O

[spark]

maybe it'll join you in Hell with Sadam :lol:

[masterbat]

irc is still here . so i think bt will survive another 10 years

[Blackbeard]

maybe it'll join you in Hell with Sadam :lol:

Lol good one. :naughty:

[PirateEagle]

well i think that will survive in 10-15years

[mievmo]

maybe it'll join you in Hell with Sadam :lol:
:) he will some company :lol:

[Geana]

I bet it'll survive for a long time, but it won't be as popular, something better will replace it eventually.

[HMthePM]

Hopefully not, but all the anti-piracy groups are geared up and 2 of the best trackers are already gone.

[sonofisis]

What do you think ?
Will it die someday ? :O

It will eventually die, like all things but surely will just be replaced by something more innovative.

[Skiz]

10 years may be a farce.

With major ISPs such as AT&T and Comcast already throttling or eliminating the use of bittorrent on their lines altogether, it would seem that the bittorrent ship will sail sooner than many people had originally thought.

I'd wager that in 5 years, most countries service providers will have eliminated it almost completely.

Believing that bittorrent will still be in widespread use in 20 years is just silly.

[mievmo]

10 years may be a farce.

With major ISPs such as AT&T and Comcast already throttling or eliminating the use of bittorrent on their lines altogether, it would seem that the bittorrent ship will sail sooner than many people had originally thought.

I'd wager that in 5 years, most countries service providers will have eliminated it almost completely.

Believing that bittorrent will still be in widespread use in 20 years is just silly.
Hmm... An good answer.. But better tech will replace BT.

[Tokeman]

I think the ISPs are going to loose this battle, as more and more users complain. A lot of legitimate things use BT, like for Linux distribution. These images and sources are very large, and BT is being used to help with bandwidth costs. Just one example, but I doubt an entire group of users such as linux users are going to just roll over and start paying to host these large (and getting larger btw) files themselves. BT is here to stay, and the ISP's will loose when this battle really starts to get going.

[IceTee]

Hopefully not, but all the anti-piracy groups are geared up and 2 of the best trackers are already gone.

And another 4 (at least) are on its way to replace them.
Hydra baby ;) there's no stopping us :P

[stroj]

Not gonna happen next 10 years

[fOrUmAs]

everything what begins have the ending...but the ending can be in 5-10-15 years from now..until that we will enjoyed :)

[Skiz]

I think the ISPs are going to loose this battle, as more and more users complain. A lot of legitimate things use BT, like for Linux distribution. These images and sources are very large, and BT is being used to help with bandwidth costs. Just one example, but I doubt an entire group of users such as linux users are going to just roll over and start paying to host these large (and getting larger btw) files themselves. BT is here to stay, and the ISP's will loose when this battle really starts to get going.

Bittorrent only hurts the ISPs via enormous bandwidth usage. There is no advantage for them, even if you're looking at total profits through a customer base.

If your ISP eliminated the use of bittorrent like AT&T has, would you disconnect your Internet in silent protest? Change carriers? What about when that one eliminates it after a year?

Service providers are all going to block bittorrent on their lines and that day is already here with some of the major providers. Your argument really holds no weight.

And yes, Linux users and others will roll over or they'll simply stop using the Internet. That's the major advantage that the ISPs have is they know that users are not going to simply stop using the Internet. You'll pay for it and you'll use what they give you or not use it at all. And we all know the latter option isn't very realistic in this day and age. Besides, there are other valuable methods of hosting files other than bittorrent.

[bikernin]

you really cannot predict how things will turn out. on the one hand there are anti-piracy groups trying to shut down sites, on the other hand organizations distributing legitimate material over BT. the battle will go on, but the best should survive another 10 years atleast

[Skiz]

Hopefully not, but all the anti-piracy groups are geared up and 2 of the best trackers are already gone.

And another 4 (at least) are on its way to replace them.
Hydra baby ;) there's no stopping us :P

Actually there is.

The ISPs aren't attempting to cut off a tentacle, they're cutting off it's food supply.

[Defy]

This thread makes me sad. Do you have any idea how poor I'll be if I, one day, have to pay for all the magical goodness I get off torrent sites? :(

[mievmo]

Maybe BT will die, but new tech will replace it... as i said before.

[MrLazy]

hell no .. the only time it dies is when something better is available ..filesharing will always be FREE and will always last FOREVER !

[Skiz]

This thread makes me sad. Do you have any idea how poor I'll be if I, one day, have to pay for all the magical goodness I get off torrent sites? :(

Do you earnestly believe that bittorrent is the only (or even best) method of file sharing? :blink:

I have one word for you - Usenet.

[pro267]

Bittorrent is so widespread because it's one of the easiest and fastest methods to share files. Newsgroups do have their advantages (speed, harder to monitor etc.), but also have their problems (retention times, slightly harder to use).

I believe BT will die eventually, but it will not be due to ISPs throtlling traffic or a crackdown of anti piracy organizations, but rather due to the emergence of other, just as easy to use and more secure protocols.

[CowboyDave]

What do you guys reckon could replace it at this time or in the future? Barring usenet of course. How about anonymous file sharing is there any possibility of one these protocols making it big anytime soon?

[mievmo]

This thread makes me sad. Do you have any idea how poor I'll be if I, one day, have to pay for all the magical goodness I get off torrent sites? :(

Do you earnestly believe that bittorrent is the only (or even best) method of file sharing? :blink:

I have one word for you - Usenet.
but "Usenet" isn't an freebie service.
u gotta pay :/

[IceTee]

y



And another 4 (at least) are on its way to replace them.
Hydra baby ;) there's no stopping us :P

Actually there is.

The ISPs aren't attempting to cut off a tentacle, they're cutting off it's food supply.

By "there's no stopping us" I meant the bigger picture...
The "Warez Family".

If they cut the food supply we'll change to "water" :happy:
We'll even make up a yell like the one in the 300 movie
"This is Sparta!!!!" :01:






Do you earnestly believe that bittorrent is the only (or even best) method of file sharing? :blink:

I have one word for you - Usenet.
but "Usenet" isn't an freebie service.
u gotta pay :/

Good point

[t0mmy]

well not until something better comes out :)

[Cheffy]

I just know Skizo is going to point out that Usenet is free (some isp give it to their users) So ill beat him to it.

And I dont think BT will last longer than 5-10 years, but by that time something new has arrived.

[Ænima]

I hope it dies. The sooner the better. This protocol is too insecure. I don't know what I'm talking about. I just want a protocol that doesn't only encrypt packet headers. I think. I don't like the idea that peers can see my IP address.

[mievmo]

I just know Skizo is going to point out that Usenet is free (some isp give it to their users) So ill beat him to it.

And I dont think BT will last longer than 5-10 years, but by that time something new has arrived.
Usenet isn't free... or i'm wrong :blink:

[t0mmy]

some ISPs give their users free access to their usenet servers, mine did but they stopped :(

[Ænima]

Is this thread considering thepiratebay's new project .p2p as bt? .p2p is backwards compatible with .torrent files after all.

[I beleive.....]

Everything have beginning and the end, so.......some day :dabs:

[LoKaLiRi]

Never die as FST alive :P

[Ænima]

Bittorrent is a protocol, a way of communicating and sharing data. It will never die in theory. In practice, it should become very unpopular for its insecurity in a few years. See torrentfreak's article on the .p2p protocol:http://torrentfreak.com/the-pirate-bay-sees-a-future-without-bittorrent-071030/

Here is the protocol design page: http://securep2p.net/index.php?title=Main_Page

[grimms]

I think bittorent will evenually die out. But when it does it will be due to a very strong replacement. Remember Kazaa anyone?

[sear]

Of course it will die out...and in less then five years I would guess. Saying it will last up to 20 is ridiculous think about how much computers have changed in 20 years :dabs:

But of course file sharing will still be around because essentially people want free shit.

[sleepyy]

As allways it dies then it's replaced when i don't know say 5 years some will still remain no idea why they just will winmx for example people say it is still around i wish i could get it to work the patch just don't work for me.

[pro267]

Of course it will die out...and in less then five years I would guess. Saying it will last up to 20 is ridiculous think about how much computers have changed in 20 years :dabs:
I'm not quite sure BT will die in less than 5 years. BT's popularity has been growing steadily in the last few years, and if we look at previous large file sharing networks that have gone down in popularity, most have been forced to do so due to pressure from the movie/recording industry (napster, kazaa etc.)
BT seems more resilient to such pressures due to the extreme segmentation of trackers.

As to evolving replacements, I agree some superior protocol will probably come out, but I don't see anything overthrowing BT in the near future. I would go with 5-10 years.

[Adama]

voted for ==) What ? Get lost - NEVER !!! :D:D

[Gish]

I have a feeling BT will in the future become like Kazaa dangerous to use and crawling with RIAA
cunt bags.

[orfik]

Everything dies, my son.

[Ænima]

Everything dies, my son.
Yeah what's with the majority voting "Never". Do you guys think bittorrent is that secure? Maybe it's just an unserious response to an unserious option and I'm just being serious about it.

[koolyt]

Bittorrent only hurts the ISPs via enormous bandwidth usage. There is no advantage for them, even if you're looking at total profits through a customer base....

i don't think this is correct. file sharers are the primary cause of technological advances in residential broadband, which ISP's are able to charge premiums for. it is precisely because of the bandwidth usage of BT that ISP's love it. if not for BT, the average home user would still have a 1/256 or something and would have no reason to upgrade. prices would inevitably have to fall and there would be WAY less demand for faster connections. some demand would obviously still exist, but it would be limited to the small number of users that are YouTube addicted or download lots from online media stores. the question is not "would you disconnect your internet" it's "would you have a 10mbit pipe and pay $50/mo. for it?"

ISP's are undoubtedly on our side in this.

[Ænima]

Bittorrent only hurts the ISPs via enormous bandwidth usage. There is no advantage for them, even if you're looking at total profits through a customer base....

i don't think this is correct. file sharers are the primary cause of technological advances in residential broadband, which ISP's are able to charge premiums for. it is precisely because of the bandwidth usage of BT that ISP's love it. if not for BT, the average home user would still have a 1/256 or something and would have no reason to upgrade. prices would inevitably have to fall and there would be WAY less demand for faster connections. some demand would obviously still exist, but it would be limited to the small number of users that are YouTube addicted or download lots from online media stores. the question is not "would you disconnect your internet" it's "would you have a 10mbit pipe and pay $50/mo. for it?"

ISP's are undoubtedly on our side in this.

You forget to acknowledge that BT is only one way of sharing files, and that an overwhelming majority of BT protocol usage has been used to coordinate piracy. With the law enforcement hammering at their backs, the ISPs are not on the BT-users side.

The fact that the bittorrent protocol partially responsible for the users' interest in large bandwidths is obviously superseded by the threat of the law enforcement.

[orfik]

Bittorrent only hurts the ISPs via enormous bandwidth usage. There is no advantage for them, even if you're looking at total profits through a customer base....

i don't think this is correct. file sharers are the primary cause of technological advances in residential broadband, which ISP's are able to charge premiums for. it is precisely because of the bandwidth usage of BT that ISP's love it. if not for BT, the average home user would still have a 1/256 or something and would have no reason to upgrade. prices would inevitably have to fall and there would be WAY less demand for faster connections. some demand would obviously still exist, but it would be limited to the small number of users that are YouTube addicted or download lots from online media stores. the question is not "would you disconnect your internet" it's "would you have a 10mbit pipe and pay $50/mo. for it?"

ISP's are undoubtedly on our side in this.

Also, you can't seriously believe BT usage is a real factor in increased bandwidth service. Do you think the average home user uses BT regularly, if they've even heard of it? Commercial ISPs offer scaled bandwidth packages for the same reason the supermarket sells peanut butter in three different sizes: people are stupid and will pay for something they won't use if they think they're getting a deal. That a minority benefit is not only secondary, it's undesirable. They're with the RIAA because there's no profit in everyone using exactly what they're buying.

[Night0wl]

i don't think this is correct. file sharers are the primary cause of technological advances in residential broadband, which ISP's are able to charge premiums for. it is precisely because of the bandwidth usage of BT that ISP's love it. if not for BT, the average home user would still have a 1/256 or something and would have no reason to upgrade. prices would inevitably have to fall and there would be WAY less demand for faster connections. some demand would obviously still exist, but it would be limited to the small number of users that are YouTube addicted or download lots from online media stores. the question is not "would you disconnect your internet" it's "would you have a 10mbit pipe and pay $50/mo. for it?"

ISP's are undoubtedly on our side in this.

You forget to acknowledge that BT is only one way of sharing files, and that an overwhelming majority of BT protocol usage has been used to coordinate piracy. With the law enforcement hammering at their backs, the ISPs are not on the BT-users side.

The fact that the bittorrent protocol partially responsible for the users' interest in large bandwidths is obviously superseded by the threat of the law enforcement.

I believe ISPs are overjoyed by BitTorrent users that wil gladly pay 5 times the amount for a faster line. They are just afraid to show it... ad then there are companies like Comcast that take advantage of it and that way save money on linerental.

Think about this in a regular business sense. Wouldn't you like it if a large part of your costumers bought 5 of each instead of 1?

As for BitTorrent survival, I would guess that in 5 years it's obsolete and replaced by other methods. Maybe built on the principal but it won't be BitTorrent as we know it today.

[iNSOMNiA]

This poll makes BitTorrent cry..

[evanse]

Give it 5.

[z3vl]

It will be superseded... someday.

[orfik]

I believe ISPs are overjoyed by BitTorrent users that wil gladly pay 5 times the amount for a faster line. They are just afraid to show it... ad then there are companies like Comcast that take advantage of it and that way save money on linerental.

Think about this in a regular business sense. Wouldn't you like it if a large part of your costumers bought 5 of each instead of 1?

As for BitTorrent survival, I would guess that in 5 years it's obsolete and replaced by other methods. Maybe built on the principal but it won't be BitTorrent as we know it today.

The same Comcast that was caught aggressively throttling BT traffic? They seem overjoyed.

[blackbird]

BT wont just die .. maybe something better will evolve from BT , a better anonymous BT ?

usenet is here from the 1980's . did it die ? no . its just getting better

i hope the same for BT

[tusks]

BT will last but 10 years tops. I won't be that sad if it dies either, it will just be a shame because I spent a lot of time finding good trackers since I have almost no friends who belong to any note worthy sites. The battles we're seeing right now, between these huge anti-piracy organizations and the end user and trackers will not disappear even if we move on to another protocol. Those dirty bastards will follow pirates to the ends of the earth, trying to destroy the scene and trying to stop the spread of warez. But I'm confident that even when BT dies, most of us are smart enough to move on and not dwell on the past.

[orfik]

That's the spirit. The death of BT will herald the advent of a superior protocol (unless it happens to coincide with the end of the internet / world).

I'm curious to see how the RIAA, MPAA, and those organizations dedicated specifically to online piracy evolve in the next five years. So far their methods are pitifully inelegant and ineffective. They need to realize they're dealing with a collective of citizens, not an organized crime ring.

[hijump]

never !!!

[Ænima]

collective of citizens, not an organized crime ring.
Eh... a collective of citizens can also be an organized crime ring. Call it white collar crime.

I am sure many pot heads and crack addicts think drugs should be legalized, after all.

[orfik]

Right, and look at how effective the war on drugs has been. A government can't faction itself against its citizens, and a commercial industry can't faction itself against the consumer. It won't work, especially not with the internet.

[B3hAnch00d]

5-10 years

[Patriot foreve]

5-10 years ,Guess the community will destroy itself from inside along with the current pressure by anti-piracy groups made on isps and server providers to cease bt traffic

[ranran1234]

absolutly...i think even less than 5 years or even if it wont die something better will 100% come....

[Ænima]

They need to realize they're dealing with a collective of citizens, not an organized crime ring.

Right, and look at how effective the war on drugs has been. A government can't faction itself against its citizens, and a commercial industry can't faction itself against the consumer. It won't work, especially not with the internet.
Oh so you now agree that bittorrent trackers are organized crime rings? ;)

[tweakz]

10 years may be a farce.

With major ISPs such as AT&T and Comcast already throttling or eliminating the use of bittorrent on their lines altogether, it would seem that the bittorrent ship will sail sooner than many people had originally thought.

I'd wager that in 5 years, most countries service providers will have eliminated it almost completely.

Believing that bittorrent will still be in widespread use in 20 years is just silly.

Ya...i totally agree!:yup:

[tirthakrit]

Even 5 years is too much thinking now that trackers like Oink and Demonoid is gone.

[game1283]

This thread makes me sad. Do you have any idea how poor I'll be if I, one day, have to pay for all the magical goodness I get off torrent sites? :(

Do you earnestly believe that bittorrent is the only (or even best) method of file sharing? :blink:

I have one word for you - Usenet.

why would I use bt if I can use usenet, it's not free everywhere.. let's say it's free in your case - not in my case

I haven't read the whole thread

[masterbat]

10 years may be a farce.

With major ISPs such as AT&T and Comcast already throttling or eliminating the use of bittorrent on their lines altogether, it would seem that the bittorrent ship will sail sooner than many people had originally thought.

I'd wager that in 5 years, most countries service providers will have eliminated it almost completely.

Believing that bittorrent will still be in widespread use in 20 years is just silly.

Ya...i totally agree!:yup:

just because some american isp's decided to throttle bittorrent doesnt mean BT is gona end . you know there is internet outside US . :01:

[tweakz]

pm me for free FTWR , include pics of your girlfriends tits...is ur sig serious? lol

[spark]

pm me for free FTWR , include pics of your girlfriends tits...is ur sig serious? lol

yes :P just pm him the tits

[tweakz]

pm me for free FTWR , include pics of your girlfriends tits...is ur sig serious? lol

yes :P just pm him the tits
I probable would if it was true! lol...

[zizo85]

i think it have long time to die
there is alot of new trackers every day:D
it will liiiiiiiiiiive:naughty:

[Night0wl]

I believe ISPs are overjoyed by BitTorrent users that wil gladly pay 5 times the amount for a faster line. They are just afraid to show it... ad then there are companies like Comcast that take advantage of it and that way save money on linerental.

Think about this in a regular business sense. Wouldn't you like it if a large part of your costumers bought 5 of each instead of 1?

As for BitTorrent survival, I would guess that in 5 years it's obsolete and replaced by other methods. Maybe built on the principal but it won't be BitTorrent as we know it today.

The same Comcast that was caught aggressively throttling BT traffic? They seem overjoyed.

Exactly what I was referring to, so ???????

[Hanz™]

Bittorrent will become like usenet. It'll never quite die.

[Skiz]

Bittorrent only hurts the ISPs via enormous bandwidth usage. There is no advantage for them, even if you're looking at total profits through a customer base....

i don't think this is correct. file sharers are the primary cause of technological advances in residential broadband, which ISP's are able to charge premiums for. it is precisely because of the bandwidth usage of BT that ISP's love it. if not for BT, the average home user would still have a 1/256 or something and would have no reason to upgrade. prices would inevitably have to fall and there would be WAY less demand for faster connections. some demand would obviously still exist, but it would be limited to the small number of users that are YouTube addicted or download lots from online media stores. the question is not "would you disconnect your internet" it's "would you have a 10mbit pipe and pay $50/mo. for it?"

ISP's are undoubtedly on our side in this.

Are you serious? :blink:

ISPs are far from "on our side". The proof is in the major ISPs such as AT&T who have completely eliminated the bittorrent protocol altogether on their lines and Comcast who have been so aggressive in throttling connections and utilizing technology to limit all peer-to-peer applications, not just bittorrent.

As for the faster connections, that's just the nature of technology and are due to nothing more than the evolution of the Internet.

[sawt_eldamir]

i believe it will be sooner than anybody think
who could believe that oink and demonoid will fall that easy ?

soon it will fall but as the most of you said " there will be a new way to share files "

[p1r4t3]

bt will die when it will. why make useless predictions and let out info.. btw I ve always felt fst is the one place because of which bt could die, cos riaa, bla bla could get their invites from here easily. Why not see the truth and blame fst for once? Also some site admins info got leaked from here even

so close fst, and make bt secure

[Skiz]

bt will die when it will. why make useless predictions and let out info.. btw I ve always felt fst is the one place because of which bt could die, cos riaa, bla bla could get their invites from here easily. Why not see the truth and blame fst for once? Also some site admins info got leaked from here even

so close fst, and make bt secure

There are 1,001 other sites which trade invites, so careful where you point that finger.

FST also doesn't do anything to put trackers in harms way, members who trade invites and accounts, as well as giveaways however, do.

[nbo]

of course just like everything does, like auio galaxy and morpheus and many more, something better and faster will emerge, 6-12 years...

[Nestea]

Never!

[aysomc]

i dont think it will continue though with comcast and AT&T, you can use torrents to legally host files that you own so if they cut that out why not completely cut out all downloading all together. the more mainstream torrents get with people legally hosting files the longer it will last, could you imagine if they throttled downloading regular files from the internet because they may be illegal? it would never work, so we need more people to legally seed files that they own which is hard since you have to donwload and know how to work 1 extra program which people seem to think is hard.

[tarantino]

I think never.

[Skiz]

i dont think it will continue though with comcast and AT&T, you can use torrents to legally host files that you own so if they cut that out why not completely cut out all downloading all together.

The ISPs will continue down the road they're on; no question. Anti-piracy organizations are suing not only the users they catch, but the ISPs which allow them to download the content. These lawsuits have been dragging through the court systems for years and the ISPs are realizing that even without having lost a case, the mere cost of fighting off these organizations is astronomical.

Do you think these multi-billion dollar corporations haven't researched this for years? Do you think they just threw up their hands and said, "Eh, we'll give it a shot"? :idunno:

You also seem to be rather misinformed about their throttling methods. AT&T for example has not reduced anyone's download speeds. In order for that to happen, their entire connection speed while on the web would be reduced as well. AT&T has simply instituted software which detects the transfer data via the bittorrent protocol and cuts off the upload the instant the download is completed. Obviously, not being able to upload would affect your status at trackers rather quickly, but also think of the big picture - With no uploaders, there is no content to download. R.I.P. bittorrent.


the more mainstream torrents get with people legally hosting files the longer it will last, could you imagine if they throttled downloading regular files from the internet because they may be illegal? it would never work, so we need more people to legally seed files that they own which is hard since you have to donwload and know how to work 1 extra program which people seem to think is hard.

You're really reaching now. Who cares if it would never work; no one is even attempting to throttle Internet connections or "regular files" (whatever that is). Conversely, the ISPs are offering faster connections every year. It's a race for business and competition for business is staunch, with speed and price being the only real factors.

Throttling all downloads of any type just doesn't make sense. Heck, every time a web page loads, you're downloading from the Internet. :dabs:

There is also illegal content all over, but unarguably the major source of it is obtained through P2P networks, and right now the flavor of the week is the bittorrent protocol. I would wager 95% of illegal content is done via P2P networks.

[jesper12345]

~10 years :/

[koolyt]

Also, you can't seriously believe BT usage is a real factor in increased bandwidth service. Do you think the average home user uses BT regularly, if they've even heard of it? Commercial ISPs offer scaled bandwidth packages for the same reason the supermarket sells peanut butter in three different sizes: people are stupid and will pay for something they won't use if they think they're getting a deal. That a minority benefit is not only secondary, it's undesirable. They're with the RIAA because there's no profit in everyone using exactly what they're buying.

hm. interesting point.


Are you serious? :blink:

ISPs are far from "on our side". The proof is in the major ISPs such as AT&T who have completely eliminated the bittorrent protocol altogether on their lines and Comcast who have been so aggressive in throttling connections and utilizing technology to limit all peer-to-peer applications, not just bittorrent.

As for the faster connections, that's just the nature of technology and are due to nothing more than the evolution of the Internet.

this is not necessarily proof that they don't like BT. throttling it makes it seem like they're trying to prevent its use, which helps out ISP's in the eyes of the law (in many countries) and the RIAA/MPAA etc., while also reducing the colossal bandwidth consumed by the protocol. thus even if ISP's liked BT because of its link to faster broadband speeds and higher premiums, it would still be wise for them to throttle it. especially since i'm sure they're aware that there are ways to get around throttling.

orfik raises a much better point, however.

[mievmo]

hmm... ppl r optimistic :/

[Skiz]

this is not necessarily proof that they don't like BT. throttling it makes it seem like they're trying to prevent its use, which helps out ISP's in the eyes of the law (in many countries) and the RIAA/MPAA etc., while also reducing the colossal bandwidth consumed by the protocol. thus even if ISP's liked BT because of its link to faster broadband speeds and higher premiums, it would still be wise for them to throttle it. especially since i'm sure they're aware that there are ways to get around throttling.

orfik raises a much better point, however.

What sort of quasi planet do you live on where completely eliminating the bittorrent protocol from uploading on the lines of all AT&T customers nationwide (worldwide?) leads you to believe that "ISPs like BT"? :blink:

[orfik]

I'm sure ISPs like the idea of BT because ideally it could optimize global bandwidth usage and take a lot of stress off the lines. What no company likes is being sued by another company.

[p-h-x]

I bet it'll survive for a long time, but it won't be as popular, something better will replace it eventually.Well, what kind of technology is going to replace it?


I believe BT is going to be used more and more for legal downloads, as it is already now for big mods, game demos or linux distributions. Anyway, I voted 10 years.

[Str8ek]

Not gonna happen next 10 years
i think so. however it's quite hard to predict but maybe in about 15-20 years it will happen...
but if it happen some other technology will replace BT for sure... here i must agree with previous posts, cause FileSharing never will die

[Something Else]

Everything dies. Obviousment.

[Allexandar]

Yes!
When? Who knows... maybe in few month's,maybe in few years... till then,enjoy!

[GoLDeN]

if hell freeze

[koolyt]

What sort of quasi planet do you live on where completely eliminating the bittorrent protocol from uploading on the lines of all AT&T customers nationwide (worldwide?) leads you to believe that "ISPs like BT"? :blink:

haha. well i didn't know throttling was ever that effective. it certainly isn't in Canada. there is no way around AT&T throttling?


I'm sure ISPs like the idea of BT because ideally it could optimize global bandwidth usage and take a lot of stress off the lines. What no company likes is being sued by another company.

i have not heard of ISP's being sued for allowing BT. i would be interested in an article/news link about that if you have one. it makes no sense since the technology itself is not illegitimate. how would such a law suit hold water in court? you could sue ISP's for allowing internet explorer, since some people use it to commit fraud.

[orfik]

i have not heard of ISP's being sued for allowing BT. i would be interested in an article/news link about that if you have one. it makes no sense since the technology itself is not illegitimate. how would such a law suit hold water in court? you could sue ISP's for allowing internet explorer, since some people use it to commit fraud.

The RIAA is pressuring the major ISPs for user information and to impose restrictions on protocols responsible for filesharing, which is the reason Comcast and others are obstructing BT traffic.

[koolyt]

The RIAA is pressuring the major ISPs for user information and to impose restrictions on protocols responsible for filesharing, which is the reason Comcast and others are obstructing BT traffic.

well of course. these organizations pressure everyone to do stuff like that. however i don't think one could sue an ISP for not throttling BT. i suppose ISP's respond to industry pressure to some degree, just like governments do, due to the crazy amount of influence and financial backing organizations like the RIAA have. this was exemplified with oink, where the IFPI was basically running the show for the police as far as i can tell, and Leaseweb felt compelled to cooperate despite the legality of file-sharing in the Netherlands (that is my understanding of the situation anyway). it's sad

[Hazardous]

It will survive as long as people want it to. It may go underground or something, but until there is something better it will always be there. Evolve, yes. Die, no.

[orfik]

Evolution is death, and BT is already feeling the environmental pressures which will draw it into obsolescence.

[dave12]

yep it will die in 5 to 10 and definitely something better will replace it

[mievmo]

Hmmm...

[caricas]

What ? Get lost - NEVER !!!

[mievmo]

What ? Get lost - NEVER !!!
:lol: too ompimistic...

[orfik]

Oh so you now agree that bittorrent trackers are organized crime rings? ;)

LOL. Please tell me where you saw that.

You guys are pretty optimistic. BT will be obsolete within two years; the writing is already on the wall.

[Vercors]

I wouldn't say 2 years, but probably no more than 5

[godfather00]

Nah... Never :P

[ChampJulius]

Unlikely in the near future

[styles]

At least filesharing never die :)

[Ænima]

You guys are pretty optimistic. BT will be obsolete within two years; the writing is already on the wall.
*looks around* ... what wall? :blink:

[orfik]

The wall holding up those reports of BT traffic shaping from at least two major ISPs and counting, the subpoenas demanding comprehensive user information from those major ISPs, a laundry list of companies booting the owners of torrent sites off of their servers, a catalog of the -rapidly- obsolete encryption methods growing more desperate with every iteration of Azureus, utorrent, et al. The one sagging under the weight of Alan Ellis' crucified body. That wall, buddy.

[koolyt]

The wall holding up those reports of BT traffic shaping from at least two major ISPs and counting, the subpoenas demanding comprehensive user information, the -rapidly- obsolete encryption methods growing more desperate with every iteration of Azureus, utorrent, et al. The one sagging under the weight of Alan Ellis' crucified body. That wall, buddy.

i don't know if i see things going so badly. consider how much time it took for the oink operation to go through. and the fact that the private tracker community has not, to date, been all that careful about ensuring its privacy. even looking at this forum, invites are given away and traded freely. some trackers are careless enough to leave admin info readily accessible through WHOIS. i don't think private trackers have taken nearly all the the measures they can to prevent intel-gathering by industry officials. if things got bad, and private trackers were truly threatened, i think they would close up and become much less accessible and take greater measures to protect themselves. it would then become even harder than it is to take down such a tracker.

historically, protocols that have been eliminated all functioned on a central-server basis. usenet, which AFAIK is decentralized, similarly to BT, has been around since the 80s.

the only way i can see it being eliminated is at an ISP level, but even then there are ways to mask torrent traffic or remove it from your home connection but continue to download (Relakks + seedbox in a BT-friendly country, for example). i think it will take a LONG time for BT to be killed.

[orfik]

That's exactly why I say that torrent trackers aren't a crime ring. Crime rings are a lot more fucking careful. And when I say it'll die, I'm not talking about get wiped off the map; I mean it will be so difficult and dangerous to use that no one will use it, which is where it's going. Anti-piracy organizations would love for private trackers to become so paranoid and exclusive that they're basically small groups of friends trading things back and forth -- that's a perfectly acceptable outcome.

Like I said, the encryption methods are losing fast. Google it. And the BT friendly countries are drying up. The Oink operation will provide a model for the dismantling of private trackers. It took a long time because it was a new procedure, but law enforcement learns pretty fast, especially where money is involved.

And we should all pray Ellis isn't convicted. If he is, your favorite trackers will disappear overnight.

[fOrUmAs]

At least filesharing never die :)

soon or later everyone die.

hehe:P

[koolyt]

That's exactly why I say that torrent trackers aren't a crime ring. Crime rings are a lot more fucking careful. And when I say it'll die, I'm not talking about get wiped off the map; I mean it will be so difficult and dangerous to use that no one will use it, which is where it's going. Anti-piracy organizations would love for private trackers to become so paranoid and exclusive that they're basically small groups of friends trading things back and forth -- that's a perfectly acceptable outcome.

i suppose it wouldn't be so bad, if public ceased to exist. many of us would not be affected. problem is at that point i think anti-piracy efforts would shift focus to private trackers. for the moment i think oink was just a demonstration. the primary concern for them i believe is still the much higher volume of public tracker users. i wonder how a fight between anti-piracy and post public crackdown highly private trackers would play out

[orfik]

I wouldn't give a damn if public trackers go under. The point you're missing is that the crux of their case against Ellis and private trackers in general is that the people who run them are making money by providing their users with copyrighted material. If it becomes legal to charge the admins of private trackers on those grounds, the doors will close very fast.

[Aachen]

bittorrent will die soon... but new protocols will born, stronger than ever :D
and anonymous, we need a high-anonymoys-kind-of-emule

[o6u]

Never

[koolyt]

...we need a high-anonymoys-kind-of-emule

yeah. private servers. would be nice

[nkhlsrf]

u dont really knw..with the advancement of technology u might see some other kinda stuff come up..maybe torrenting might die..but there will be something to take its place...there wont be a void..

[jr56]

...we need a high-anonymoys-kind-of-emule

yeah. private servers. would be nice

An anonymous emule with it's unmatched searching facility and library of files combined with BT's speed would be a dream :whistling

[0ctane]

i would say 5 years

[JUSTAGUY]

This thread makes me sad. Do you have any idea how poor I'll be if I, one day, have to pay for all the magical goodness I get off torrent sites? :(

Do you earnestly believe that bittorrent is the only (or even best) method of file sharing? :blink:

I have one word for you - Usenet.

news servers rule:yup:

[carpediemm]

I would guess that it will die in about 5 years

[Pirate]

maybe it'll join you in Hell with Sadam :lol:

+ 1

[tazmsn]

never!

[Fibre]

It's going to take a lot for it to die. I reckon 10-15 years.

[mievmo]

hmm... 40% for Never..

[shutdk]

no

[Scavenger]

I guess it will take 5 years in dissappear.

[mievmo]

i think at least 10...

[JGB]

I think it will end up like other systems have, as it gets to be a more widely used system it will get regulated and policed just like cable tv did, and as much of the internet is starting to get too.
Will it be surpassed by something else? Sure will, people always have shared things(Tape recordings etc) as long as it was easy with minimal risk.
or it will be fragmented and sharing will continue through smaller and more obscure systems either encrypted server/client like KDX or something like Hamachi.



Until then, long live the sneakernet:P
400mb/sec of USB>internet

[devils_reject]

who knows whats coming next, but i think it will last more than 20 years so i voted never

[(I)]

I voted for when u wish bt dies, never

[Disme]

Everything comes to an end ... but will eventually be replaced by some other form of filesharing.

It's the spirit of sharing they cannot destroy and as long as that spirit is alive people will continue working on other P2P-applications to continue sharing their files.

ISP's can and do indeed already throttle bandwith when it come to BT-traffic. This will just continue to augment until it is virtually impossible to use it for most people. BT will pay the price for it's own success. That's what always happens when one filesharing method becomes very popular.

The only thing to do is to get an alternative for when it's time ends.

[SAM]

who cares?

[r77]

dunno

[Gilgameshx]

I think it will live till it gets replaced by superior ways of sharing files

[Kyokushin]

Of course it will die, it's just a matter of time.
I can see myself at my 80s telling my nerd grandsons something like "back in the beginning of the century, real men used BT!" :D
Sad but true, I don't give the bt world any more than 5 years... it's getting too much attention and too much popularity

[C-mos]

I hope NEVER :(:(

[FileZ]

never !!!

[Swift]

Never :D

[J-dye]

who is alice ?

[Bionic]

BT will always be around in a way or another. :D

[Pzero]

5-10 years max. Speeds get higher and higher, people get lazier and lazier...bound to happen. Hope I can still find some good communities though :D

[kondrae]

i think itll be replaced in bout 5 years and die in 15. new protocols are already in development and are targeted for better security and speed. for example http://torrentfreak.com/the-pirate-bay-sees-a-future-without-bittorrent-071030/

its just a matter of time before something better than bt comes out; example- like fasttrack, Gnutella, and eDonkey, will get less popular.

[Qlix]

10 years maybe?

[myllian]

Yeah I think it will die when the music and film industry will finally join the business :D
Everything Dies.

[Aether]

Within 10 years it will be replaced by something better

[m0nEy]

I think it will be replaced by something more fascinating.

[VIZFX]

I think that their will be a "better" alternative in 5 years or less as long as isp bandwidths keep up with demand.

[Sonnentier]

Bittorrent only hurts the ISPs via enormous bandwidth usage. There is no advantage for them, even if you're looking at total profits through a customer base.What's so much better about Usenet? Still needs a lot of traffic doesn't it? Why shouldn't they just cut access to any newsgroup, filter nntp raw and encrypted.


And yes, Linux users and others will roll over or they'll simply stop using the Internet.Linux users stop using the internet?? :blink:
I think they might pay a lot more to get real internet without boundaries.
Linux is about freedom in informational world, I don't think they will easily settle with a worse-than-AOL provider.


How about anonymous file sharing is there any possibility of one these protocols making it big anytime soon?
Don't think so, they suck away a mulitple of traffic compared to BitTorrent (and even this gets fighted by the ISPs which don't deliver what they offer).


file sharers are the primary cause of technological advances in residential broadband, which ISP's are able to charge premiums for. [..] "would you have a 10mbit pipe and pay $50/mo. for it?"
Yes I think the same. If I'd only surf then even 1Mbit is sufficient.


With major ISPs such as AT&T and Comcast already throttling or eliminating the use of bittorrent on their lines altogether, it would seem that the bittorrent ship will sail sooner than many people had originally thought.Then we don't only lose BitTorrent but also for the first time we'd lose network neutrality / the free network.


so close fst, and make bt secure
You would destroy a lot of the p2p spirit just the same time.
Scene doesn't want any private trackers to operate with their files, but they do it anyway - and the same time there will always be communities that will discuss trackers, also if the trackers wish to be a top-secret and exclusive place. I don't think private sites should claim too much because they usually violate the same rules with their existence.


Throttling all downloads of any type just doesn't make sense. Heck, every time a web page loads, you're downloading from the Internet. :dabs:
They could well use some traffic shaping. Like when you start downloading a file through http, it will have full-speed. It will have that for the first 15 sec or however you set it. After that time, the speed will drop exponentially. This will not affect surfing the web or loading pages, it also shouldn't affect Videoportals when applied correctly. It would only slow the downloading of large files. On the other side, if they will never do something like this to http, then using Rapidshare or similar will always be a good method to receive the files.

I don't know about the future, there might well be change but I don't see it in the next time. BitTorrent has what we need and there are already many good clients / trackers. What would we further need at this point to share the files via p2p, I don't think we desperately wait for something specific so I also don't think that BitTorrent will get grounded so soon. Perhaps one day a developer gets a bright idea how to improve, probably this is going to happen, and then we will use this new technology.. but I can't say when or what that would be.

I agree with the others, the idea of filesharing will never die, there will always be ways.

About Usenet, it's a paradise today, and delivers perfectly what we need currently. Protection through good privacy, speed down the asymmetric lines, and their traffic is not filtered. But in the remote future, I can't see why newsgroups should be essentially superior over other methods that might come up - basic conditions might change in the future.

[escuoop]

I don't think it will die soon.

it may be gets developed and be better.

[Cow King]

i think 3-5 years until a new technology of download will come until that
BT rulezzzzzzzzzz

[5+4=9]

Hard to say... BT will only die when and if leechers find a more effective protocol

[B4ss]

Another 10 years...

[Dark Archon]

BT will never die as it is almost impossible to be crack down . The core reason lies the fact that it is operated through users as mediums and trackers are only platforms. So as long as there are users left there will always be BT.

[lsw0794]

maybe 20 years

[saint24th]

well i think that will survive in 10-15years