FileSharing Talk - IDC predicts Windows Phone 7 will be 2nd behind Android by 2015

Back in February Nokia and Microsoft announced that Nokia would be putting Windows Phone 7 on its future smartphones and I was quite happy because I am a fan of both, but many were not pleased with the news. According to this new IDC forecast for the smartphone market, Windows Phone 7 is predicted to be the number 2 mobile OS in the world behind Android by 2015.

I previously questioned the value of 3-year forecasts in the fast moving smartphone world and still think it is tough to predict what is going to happen. Microsoft and Nokia could break up if things don’t work out, Apple may come up with some major change in iOS that gains them some market share, or HP’s webOS could even break the 5% market share level.

2011 Market Share	2015 Market Share	2011-2015 CAGR
Android	39.5%	45.4%	23.8%
BlackBerry	14.9%	13.7%	17.1%
iOS	15.7%	15.3%	18.8%
Symbian	20.9%	0.2%	-65.0%
Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile	5.5%	20.9%	67.1%
Others	3.5%	4.6%	28.0%
Total	100.0%	100.0%	19.6%

As recent market share data has shown, Apple’s iOS has plateaued. I think this is likely due to limited carrier availability and a stagnant OS interface, when compared to the fresh user interfaces coming from Android and Windows Phone 7. RIM is also predicted to continue at a fairly steady pace for the next few years, but if the enterprise market decides to go with Windows Phone 7 they may just see more of a decline than predicted. Symbian of course will see a major drop in market share, although there will continue to be low end Symbian devices in the market.

Source: ZDnet

1st column 2nd column 3rd column 4th column (unlabeled) 2011 share % 2015 share % % change from OS (predicted) 2011 --> 2015

3 Comments

Cut-Copy-Paste - 03-29-2011, 05:44 PM
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what is 3rd %?

duke0102 - 03-29-2011, 06:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Cut-Copy-Paste

what is 3rd %?

The chart above has the top to the left for me but 3rd is IOS on that chart

mjmacky - 03-29-2011, 08:24 PM
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Code:

1st column 2nd column 3rd column 4th column (unlabeled) 2011 share % 2015 share % % change from OS (predicted) 2011 --> 2015
Hopefully that clears up the table, the first row is missing a labeled column

So essentially it's saying now Android is #1, Symbian #2, iOS and Blackberry are #3 & #4
In the future, Win7 Mobile will take Symbian's current place, and iOS/Blackberry will still sit at #'s 3&4, while Android becomes an even a bigger #1