Quote:
Originally posted by Illuminati@7 January 2004 - 13:06
Seems like spam to me :rolleyes: and what the f*** is GLT Poliane? :huh: But I'll answer my predictions to make a legit post ;)
Kazaa has had its day - With Sharman's mismanagement of current matters in terms of helping their users (spyware, pop-up ads, introduction of DRM systems, legal action against K-Lite instead of other scam sites), my guess is that users will dwindle down drastically by the end of 2004, even going as far as shutting down due to lack of profits.
eMule is hard to predict - It's still going strong, but I don't see it expanding or changing drastically. My guess is that eMule will carry on as currently until the end of the year, like the Mule it personifies :)
BitTorrent has had blows since it became popular, but is still good nonetheless. My opinion is that BitTorrent's future is based on the sites that hold BT links and their futures - If they go down, BT will go down. If they go strong and expand, so will BT.
Soulseek is great for music, but is limited by the capabilities of the servers (downtimes, etc). If they can sort the problems of the servers, SS could be the dark horse to become one of the key networks of the P2P philosophy. Of course, it's a case of if - The servers might not be fully fixed of all problems.
EarthStation 5 is also a difficult one to predict; it's had its knocks recently and its made a few mistakes, but it does what it says on the tin - It provides users with security. My honest guess is that its future is based on the public actions of the RIAA & similar organisations in this next year. As RIAA subpoena & sue more people, others may be herded into ES5. If the RIAA no longer become such a legal pain in the ass like before however, ES5 may lose the argument for its security advantage and may dwindle to nothing.
iTunes had a tremendous start, until the news of the profits of each song's tracks goes straight to the RIAA instead of a chunk (or all) going to Apple. As such, my guess is that iTunes won't keep the popularity up that it once had. Then again, with P2P getting more & more people in every day, I might be wrong and iTunes may become more popular.
Napster 2.0 won't have a chance of surviving this next year - Very few want to pay for tracks, and those who do are more likely to go for iTunes instead of this legally-whipped version.
Sharaza will survive - If Kazaa finishes this year, it's one network down out of the multiple Sharaza can use. My guess is that the only way that Sharaza can die is if the programmers do a random nut and say "f*** it"
SwapGate is a different thing - It's new, so it can't really be predicted as to what will happen to it. It could become a large program, forming the "life after death" to many K-Lite fans. But that isn't certain - Like a pin on its tip, it can go either way :)
They're my predictions - It'll be interesting to see which will come true in December :)
GLT Politane is a similar program like Audiogalaxy - It works on a similar base, this means: it connects to a central server.