The Slow Death of P2P and Creative Destruction

but how do you know, we may be all dead by 2012 lol

but emule is still around, limewire is, yes the heat is coming down, but again, its only 1 site, yes they got to the other swedish trackers after the courtcase, but they are starting to come back, and others taking their place.

and as far as i know Darkside never went down under pressure, they went down because the owner was fed up for the most part, and they could not compete with trackers with P2L for donations. (there is a thread on here regarding it somewhere.

If it does all collapse around us, we move on, but i think by the time august comes, there will be 2-3 more public trackers like TPB, so plenty of places for the users to go to.

btw I have been to TPB once since it opened, and that was just to their page with their replies to the RIAA and MPAA, I have never actually searched or even seen the browse page, so people can survive without it, its not the end of the world (yet lol)

lol

emule, DC++, limewire, etc aren't nearly as popular as bittorrent is now. They may have been at one point (remember the golden age of kazaa, morpheus, and limewire?), but most people consider bittorrent to be the forerunner for file-sharing now. Nothing will collapse around us, but rather we'll see a migration of people from bittorrent to newer technologies. I have a feeling BCG and other private sites will be around for quite some time, since they have very dedicated communities.

I'll leave my argument there if anyone wants to pick up on it. I'm more interested in what other people have to say about this.

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Originally Posted by stopher54

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Originally Posted by Polarbear

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Ever used a fast private tracker? What you call a flaw allows you to download new movies with almost unlimited download speed. Bundled upload bandwith is the only way to achieve that. In fact there's so much unused upload bandwith that you will more likely end up with 200 seeders and you being the only leecher and max out your download speed. Especially on new torrents. An initial uploader with 12 kb/s is pretty rare in the private tracker scene.

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Yes, actually, I ran one for a bit.

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You know what filesharing is based on? On releases. May they come from the scene or from P2P releasers. It all starts with a release on one(!) harddisk somewhere. If this file isn't initially uploaded to a server or a tracker with good speed, there's no other system in the world that can make the transfer faster.

If you ran a tracker where new movies were uploaded with 12kb/s you should have looked for more dedicated uploaders. That's definitely not a flaw in the bittorrent system.

well my closing point as well, eveyone from TPB may very well go back to Limewire/Emule/DC++ etc etc.

lets put it this way, 20mil unique hits a day, allegedally to TPB, Private trackers = 1mil tops and probably a hell of a lot less than that (unless you count puretna which has quite a few), so there are a hell of a lot of people (noobs to us i suppose) that have no idea about private trackers, and would probably never know about TPB if it wasnt plastered all over the news all the time, but most of those will go back to using those programmes, so what once was the driving force, BT, will not be anymore, and what it overtook (Emule/Limewire etc) will get all those old people back and be the driving force again.

A new Public tracker wont be an overnight success thats for sure, so in the meantime people will revert back to what they were doing before, so inturn, taking the heat off BT and turning it back on the above programes (or here is hoping anyway lol)

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EDIT: I was talking with a friend, who said that DC++ (jokingly or otherwise) could make a comeback.

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which i have just seen you touched on there.

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Originally Posted by Polarbear

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Originally Posted by stopher54

Yes, actually, I ran one for a bit.

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You know what filesharing is based on? On releases. May they come from the scene or from P2P releasers. It all starts with a release on one(!) harddisk somewhere. If this file isn't initially uploaded to a server or a tracker with good speed, there's no other system in the world that can make the transfer faster.

If you ran a tracker where new movies were uploaded with 12kb/s you should have looked for more dedicated uploaders. That's definitely not a flaw in the bittorrent system.

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I'm not denying this. In fact, I totally agree with what you just said. The case I made was a bit extreme, but it served its point in context. That doesn't mean bittorrent won't get slowly phased out as new technologies are introduced.

/closing point

I don't think anyone expects that bittorrent will last forever.. that's a pretty shallow 'point' to make.

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Originally Posted by TrueSounds

I don't think anyone expects that bittorrent will last forever.. that's a pretty shallow 'point' to make.

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But that is exactly the point. We are seeing the beginning of this process, and the start of creative destruction in the bittorrent world. In fact, on a smaller scale, creative destruction worked wonders when OiNK went down (and a far more innovative What.cd took its place).

the topic title is misleading. P2P is not gonna die.Yes bittorrent, will someday have a successor, its unenviable. Technology always moves forward. Some new protocol will be invented to better suit file-sharer's needs like more anon., easiler to use, faster, etc.

While i agree with you that times haven't been that good for BT,i really don't think BT as we know it is going to go anywhere.You'll be suprised as to the number of people who download stuff illegally but are yet to understand what torrents are,these are the people who generated traffic for thepiratebay once they discovered torrents(20 million/day they say?) and there are still many more out there .

You'll even be more suprised as to how difficult it is to start paying for non-existent stuff(intellectual property) once you've gone pirate.Ask the swedes they'll tell you.

The way i see it is that the n00bs of today are the pros of tomorrow and the curious of today the n00bs of tomorrow.Call it a cycle and as far as i know demand shall forever beget supply(unless of course you wanna tell me that the resilient scene <the source if you will> is finally gonna crumble too?)mh...kinda explains why the feds think it makes more sense to go after the drug cartel(the scene) than you the druggie(torrenter),at least they understand we are the victims.If you need evidence just look at who stopped carrying cameras to cinemas and who all of a sudden TS's everything thats out.The scene is laying low while P2P is gradually growing and having all the fun.

The evolutionary scenario here is simple,no matter how many people quit bittorrent there is going to be a dozen more wanting to get in.Dont forget that not many people(even pros) care as to how secure they were while getting the files just that they have something for popcorn hour.

Dirty sexy money is finally making a comeback and you can trust i'll still be leeching it from somewhere 5 seasons from this one ;).

Not to sound rude, but I've read very similar articles 5 years ago when suprnova shut down. And then again after the lokitorrents fiasco, and again after "Operation D-Elite".

People need to relax - either BT will evolve and survive or something new will replace it.