Will BT die ?

~10 years :/

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Originally Posted by orfik

Also, you can't seriously believe BT usage is a real factor in increased bandwidth service. Do you think the average home user uses BT regularly, if they've even heard of it? Commercial ISPs offer scaled bandwidth packages for the same reason the supermarket sells peanut butter in three different sizes: people are stupid and will pay for something they won't use if they think they're getting a deal. That a minority benefit is not only secondary, it's undesirable. They're with the RIAA because there's no profit in everyone using exactly what they're buying.

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hm. interesting point.

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Originally Posted by Skizo

Are you serious? :blink:

ISPs are far from "on our side". The proof is in the major ISPs such as AT&T who have completely eliminated the bittorrent protocol altogether on their lines and Comcast who have been so aggressive in throttling connections and utilizing technology to limit all peer-to-peer applications, not just bittorrent.

As for the faster connections, that's just the nature of technology and are due to nothing more than the evolution of the Internet.

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this is not necessarily proof that they don't like BT. throttling it makes it seem like they're trying to prevent its use, which helps out ISP's in the eyes of the law (in many countries) and the RIAA/MPAA etc., while also reducing the colossal bandwidth consumed by the protocol. thus even if ISP's liked BT because of its link to faster broadband speeds and higher premiums, it would still be wise for them to throttle it. especially since i'm sure they're aware that there are ways to get around throttling.

orfik raises a much better point, however.

hmm... ppl r optimistic :/

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Originally Posted by koolyt

this is not necessarily proof that they don't like BT. throttling it makes it seem like they're trying to prevent its use, which helps out ISP's in the eyes of the law (in many countries) and the RIAA/MPAA etc., while also reducing the colossal bandwidth consumed by the protocol. thus even if ISP's liked BT because of its link to faster broadband speeds and higher premiums, it would still be wise for them to throttle it. especially since i'm sure they're aware that there are ways to get around throttling.

orfik raises a much better point, however.

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What sort of quasi planet do you live on where completely eliminating the bittorrent protocol from uploading on the lines of all AT&T customers nationwide (worldwide?) leads you to believe that "ISPs like BT"? :blink:

I'm sure ISPs like the idea of BT because ideally it could optimize global bandwidth usage and take a lot of stress off the lines. What no company likes is being sued by another company.

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Originally Posted by Geana

I bet it'll survive for a long time, but it won't be as popular, something better will replace it eventually.

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Well, what kind of technology is going to replace it?


I believe BT is going to be used more and more for legal downloads, as it is already now for big mods, game demos or linux distributions. Anyway, I voted 10 years.

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Originally Posted by stroj

Not gonna happen next 10 years

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i think so. however it's quite hard to predict but maybe in about 15-20 years it will happen...
but if it happen some other technology will replace BT for sure... here i must agree with previous posts, cause FileSharing never will die

Everything dies. Obviousment.

Yes!
When? Who knows... maybe in few month's,maybe in few years... till then,enjoy!

if hell freeze

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Originally Posted by Skizo

What sort of quasi planet do you live on where completely eliminating the bittorrent protocol from uploading on the lines of all AT&T customers nationwide (worldwide?) leads you to believe that "ISPs like BT"? :blink:

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haha. well i didn't know throttling was ever that effective. it certainly isn't in Canada. there is no way around AT&T throttling?

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Originally Posted by orfik

I'm sure ISPs like the idea of BT because ideally it could optimize global bandwidth usage and take a lot of stress off the lines. What no company likes is being sued by another company.

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i have not heard of ISP's being sued for allowing BT. i would be interested in an article/news link about that if you have one. it makes no sense since the technology itself is not illegitimate. how would such a law suit hold water in court? you could sue ISP's for allowing internet explorer, since some people use it to commit fraud.

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Originally Posted by koolyt

i have not heard of ISP's being sued for allowing BT. i would be interested in an article/news link about that if you have one. it makes no sense since the technology itself is not illegitimate. how would such a law suit hold water in court? you could sue ISP's for allowing internet explorer, since some people use it to commit fraud.

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The RIAA is pressuring the major ISPs for user information and to impose restrictions on protocols responsible for filesharing, which is the reason Comcast and others are obstructing BT traffic.

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Originally Posted by orfik

The RIAA is pressuring the major ISPs for user information and to impose restrictions on protocols responsible for filesharing, which is the reason Comcast and others are obstructing BT traffic.

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well of course. these organizations pressure everyone to do stuff like that. however i don't think one could sue an ISP for not throttling BT. i suppose ISP's respond to industry pressure to some degree, just like governments do, due to the crazy amount of influence and financial backing organizations like the RIAA have. this was exemplified with oink, where the IFPI was basically running the show for the police as far as i can tell, and Leaseweb felt compelled to cooperate despite the legality of file-sharing in the Netherlands (that is my understanding of the situation anyway). it's sad

It will survive as long as people want it to. It may go underground or something, but until there is something better it will always be there. Evolve, yes. Die, no.

Evolution is death, and BT is already feeling the environmental pressures which will draw it into obsolescence.

yep it will die in 5 to 10 and definitely something better will replace it

Hmmm...

What ? Get lost - NEVER !!!

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Originally Posted by caricas

What ? Get lost - NEVER !!!

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:lol: too ompimistic...

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Originally Posted by Ænima

Oh so you now agree that bittorrent trackers are organized crime rings? ;)

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LOL. Please tell me where you saw that.

You guys are pretty optimistic. BT will be obsolete within two years; the writing is already on the wall.

I wouldn't say 2 years, but probably no more than 5

Nah... Never :P

Unlikely in the near future

At least filesharing never die :)

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Originally Posted by orfik

You guys are pretty optimistic. BT will be obsolete within two years; the writing is already on the wall.

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*looks around* ... what wall? :blink:

The wall holding up those reports of BT traffic shaping from at least two major ISPs and counting, the subpoenas demanding comprehensive user information from those major ISPs, a laundry list of companies booting the owners of torrent sites off of their servers, a catalog of the -rapidly- obsolete encryption methods growing more desperate with every iteration of Azureus, utorrent, et al. The one sagging under the weight of Alan Ellis' crucified body. That wall, buddy.

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Originally Posted by orfik

The wall holding up those reports of BT traffic shaping from at least two major ISPs and counting, the subpoenas demanding comprehensive user information, the -rapidly- obsolete encryption methods growing more desperate with every iteration of Azureus, utorrent, et al. The one sagging under the weight of Alan Ellis' crucified body. That wall, buddy.

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i don't know if i see things going so badly. consider how much time it took for the oink operation to go through. and the fact that the private tracker community has not, to date, been all that careful about ensuring its privacy. even looking at this forum, invites are given away and traded freely. some trackers are careless enough to leave admin info readily accessible through WHOIS. i don't think private trackers have taken nearly all the the measures they can to prevent intel-gathering by industry officials. if things got bad, and private trackers were truly threatened, i think they would close up and become much less accessible and take greater measures to protect themselves. it would then become even harder than it is to take down such a tracker.

historically, protocols that have been eliminated all functioned on a central-server basis. usenet, which AFAIK is decentralized, similarly to BT, has been around since the 80s.

the only way i can see it being eliminated is at an ISP level, but even then there are ways to mask torrent traffic or remove it from your home connection but continue to download (Relakks + seedbox in a BT-friendly country, for example). i think it will take a LONG time for BT to be killed.

That's exactly why I say that torrent trackers aren't a crime ring. Crime rings are a lot more fucking careful. And when I say it'll die, I'm not talking about get wiped off the map; I mean it will be so difficult and dangerous to use that no one will use it, which is where it's going. Anti-piracy organizations would love for private trackers to become so paranoid and exclusive that they're basically small groups of friends trading things back and forth -- that's a perfectly acceptable outcome.

Like I said, the encryption methods are losing fast. Google it. And the BT friendly countries are drying up. The Oink operation will provide a model for the dismantling of private trackers. It took a long time because it was a new procedure, but law enforcement learns pretty fast, especially where money is involved.

And we should all pray Ellis isn't convicted. If he is, your favorite trackers will disappear overnight.

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Originally Posted by styles

At least filesharing never die :)

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soon or later everyone die.

hehe:P

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Originally Posted by orfik

That's exactly why I say that torrent trackers aren't a crime ring. Crime rings are a lot more fucking careful. And when I say it'll die, I'm not talking about get wiped off the map; I mean it will be so difficult and dangerous to use that no one will use it, which is where it's going. Anti-piracy organizations would love for private trackers to become so paranoid and exclusive that they're basically small groups of friends trading things back and forth -- that's a perfectly acceptable outcome.

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i suppose it wouldn't be so bad, if public ceased to exist. many of us would not be affected. problem is at that point i think anti-piracy efforts would shift focus to private trackers. for the moment i think oink was just a demonstration. the primary concern for them i believe is still the much higher volume of public tracker users. i wonder how a fight between anti-piracy and post public crackdown highly private trackers would play out

I wouldn't give a damn if public trackers go under. The point you're missing is that the crux of their case against Ellis and private trackers in general is that the people who run them are making money by providing their users with copyrighted material. If it becomes legal to charge the admins of private trackers on those grounds, the doors will close very fast.

bittorrent will die soon... but new protocols will born, stronger than ever :D
and anonymous, we need a high-anonymoys-kind-of-emule

Never

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Originally Posted by Aachen

...we need a high-anonymoys-kind-of-emule

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yeah. private servers. would be nice

u dont really knw..with the advancement of technology u might see some other kinda stuff come up..maybe torrenting might die..but there will be something to take its place...there wont be a void..

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Originally Posted by koolyt

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Originally Posted by Aachen

...we need a high-anonymoys-kind-of-emule

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yeah. private servers. would be nice

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An anonymous emule with it's unmatched searching facility and library of files combined with BT's speed would be a dream :whistling

i would say 5 years

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Originally Posted by Skizo

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Originally Posted by Defy

This thread makes me sad. Do you have any idea how poor I'll be if I, one day, have to pay for all the magical goodness I get off torrent sites? :(

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Do you earnestly believe that bittorrent is the only (or even best) method of file sharing? :blink:

I have one word for you - Usenet.

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news servers rule:yup:

I would guess that it will die in about 5 years

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Originally Posted by spark

maybe it'll join you in Hell with Sadam :lol:

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