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Originally Posted by
shaina
Cabby: Ok lets have a little fun buddy:hug:
Now i don't see your response of my rebuttal to your thinking?? Again always keep in mind Economics, Human Nature in a Democratic society not Socialist/Communist one, and Self Determination....
That's because I have other things to do and quite frankly, your understanding of numbers is a head scratcher to me. You look at the numbers I posted and you say that Florida and Texas have fewer deaths (I assume you mean compared to California and New York)? On an absolute basis, yes. But not on a per capita basis. The death rate per 1,000 residents is 1.2 in California vs. 1.4 in Texas. Doesn't seem like much, but to me a 15% difference is statistically significant. By your reasoning, Rhode Island would be doing great -- as of yesterday, only 2,290 people have died there! Fantastic! Except that that is actually the fourth highest death rate of the fifty states since the start of the pandemic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
shaina
Now i will start like this.... You have 2 states with 10,000 in population and one locked down and the other open full or with mild restrictions....
Opened....10,000 population ....
Wuhan China virus deaths 101
And the states economy is great, and hospital care is still going....
Now Locked Up 10.000 population....
Wuhan China virus deaths 102
suicides 10
Deaths on closing elective surgeries... 50
And the economy of the state is in ruins and Adults and Children are suffering and very Angry and Frustrated and depressed!!!!
How do the numbers look when you put them on the screen???
Okay, let's not talk about your meaningless hypotheticals and look at real-world examples. Would you agree that the Nordic countries are similar enough (culturally, sociologically, economically, etc) to draw some valid conclusions? In that case let's look at how Sweden (open) and Denmark/Norway/Finland (locked-down) fared through the pandemic. I recommend this article, but since I know you won't click on the link and actually read it, let me just post this graph and a few of the highlights:
Attachment 186141
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The King of Sweden, Carl XVI Gustaf, last week said the country had “failed” in its efforts to protect society from the pandemic. These comments were later described by the royal court as an expression of “empathy for those affected”, rather than a reprimand aimed at the authorities. Nevertheless, just a few days later, Stockholm introduced a series of new measures, including limiting public gatherings to eight people, closing gyms, libraries and swimming pools, and recommending the use of face masks on crowded public transport.
And here you can see directly what the impact of lock-down vs. no lock-down is:
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These spring re-openings didn’t prevent case numbers falling and social distancing guidelines remained in place throughout the summer. As schools, hairdressers and sports clubs returned, Sweden's state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell told Danish media on 26 April that Denmark was “now starting to follow the Swedish path by… pursuing a gentler model”. But this was at a fraction of the cost in lives. [...] In recent weeks, Denmark’s path has diverged from that of its neighbours. Its upward curve of daily infections, corrected for population size, is, at the time of writing, steeper than all but one other western European country: Sweden. On 16 December, Copenhagen announced a second lockdown, one it had been hoping to avoid, which will come into full force on 25 December. Experts in Denmark have argued that, this time, the country waited until case numbers were too high before imposing tighter restrictions.
So as soon as they move to the "Swedish" model case numbers and deaths spike and they lose control of the pandemic. But to give some credit, at least the Swedes are not so stubborn that they don't see the error of their ways:
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The story of the second wave is incomplete for the Nordic countries, but it appears so far to be mirroring the first: these comparable countries have adopted mostly pragmatic, proactive approaches and, when compared with Sweden, they have saved more lives. [...] the decision to adopt more restrictions and recommendations is a sign that Sweden is now beginning to follow the path its neighbours have trodden for months.
But your biggest fallacy is your claim that you have to choose between saving lives and saving the economy. Read this article. And since you most likely will not, let me just highlight the conclusion:
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The standard economic indicators reviewed here show, overall, countries that have contained the virus also tend to have had less severe economic impacts than those that haven’t.
No one should be misled into believing there is zero-sum choice between saving lives and saving the economy. That is a false dichotomy.
If there is anything to be learned regarding how to deal with future pandemics, it is that rapidly containing the pandemic may well lessen its economic impact.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
shaina
Truly it is time to open up the countries and take precautions where needed!!!!
Precautions... Like social distancing, (double)masking and a lock-down of those parts of the economy that would contribute to the spread of the virus? Well, I sure am glad that you seem to be coming around. :)
As an side, I don't even know how to respond to this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by
shaina
Science is projections and predictions/assumptions not FACTS!!!!!!!
