Football thrashes other sports for excitement, scientists say

Surprise secret to soccer appeal

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/image..._getty_203.jpg The element of surprise elevates football above other sports

American football, basketball and baseball have millions of followers, but they can't match soccer for sheer excitement, says a team of scientists. The reason is its element of surprise, claim researchers from Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, US. Football is more likely to produce an unexpected result, such as a "giant killer" win in the FA Cup. Scientists analysed results from more than 300,000 games played over the past century. They reviewed five sports: ice hockey, football, baseball and basketball in the US, and English football. The team decided to make unpredictability - how often a leading team is overcome by an opponent with a worse record - the best measure of how exciting a league is. "If there are no upsets, then every game is predictable and hence boring," co-author Eli Ben-Naim told New Scientist magazine. The results of the analysis showed that the "upset frequency" was highest for soccer, followed by baseball, hockey, and basketball. American football came last on the list, and so was labelled the least exciting sport.

But there was a twist in the tail.

When the scientists looked only at data from the past 10 years, English Premiership football and baseball swapped places. One interpretation of the finding might be that soccer has become more predictable in recent years.

Source


Predictable sport boring? Mmm, I can certainly predict the posts that will follow in this thread...;)

Nothing to beat t'arras for thrills and spills and the unpredictable.

that's pretty neat.

Thank you, I thought I would be succinct.

unpredictable outcome = excitement

That makes some sense but the scientists have drawn a broad conclusion from that which ain't always so.

How about soccer is the most popular sport in the world and the oldest of all major sports?

The fact that they put baseball in there further adds to their error. One may point to the Yankees losing to Red Sox as backing up this this research. How about it was an amazing comeback?

I personally think soccer may be less predictable because more anarchy is allowed. Another similar sport is hockey. It's cool that when push comes to shove, one can push and shove.

I didn't know that certain soccer teams didn't dominate or have dynasties though. That's what I get from the post.

Either way I agree with the conclusion about soccer but not how they came to it. I wonder did they simply ask what sport the respondents liked/disliked?:unsure:
Baseball? Fuck no!:angry: I love when scientists come to conclusions that make little sense irregardless to their research. The ending to a movie doesn't always make the entire experience exciting.:ermm:

The most simple reason for the popularity of soccer/football is that it is exceedingly cheap and easy for anyone to play.

Almost any ball will do; that and a bit of open space and you're in business.

Even a semi-organized effort needn't have rigid requirements as to equipment or space.

Grass-roots popularity-kids have been growing up with soccer forever.

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Originally Posted by j2k4

The most simple reason for the popularity of soccer/football is that it is exceedingly cheap and easy for anyone to play.

Almost any ball will do; that and a bit of open space and you're in business.

Even a semi-organized effort needn't have rigid requirements as to equipment or space.

Grass-roots popularity-kids have been growing up with soccer forever.

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Ah gawd please don't go there. I was purposely staying on the excitement doohicky.

I've been talking about the simplicity of soccer relating to it's popularity for awhile now.:ermm:

I can play basketball in the grass too...stay all the way on topic ffs. :snooty:

I am curious whether the UK is pretty much a 3 sport country as far as ultra popularity.

I'm thinking rugby, soccer, and cricket.:unsure:

Over here it's soccer (MLS), football (NFL, college), baseball (MLB), basketball (NBA, college), and hockey (NHL). Also does the UK have a national basketball team? I know many other European nations do.

edit: I also forgot about another element to surprise would be the lack of scoring in soccer. I'd burst a blood vessel when my team finally scored.
I know when I went to that POS Redskins/Giants game that tied 7-7, if the Redskins could have eeked out one more goal ftw, I'd have probably spilled my cold beer on myself with excitement and slapped the lady next to me. However it ended in a tie.:angry:

That kind of excitement is too much like coaching Little League baseball.

I pretty much stopped wearing hats over such foolishness; got tired of leaving my hair in there. :(

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Originally Posted by j2k4

That kind of excitement is too much like coaching Little League baseball.

I pretty much stopped wearing hats over such foolishness; got tired of leaving my hair in there. :(

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:huh: Wow. I never thought of it that way but it makes sense now.:O

When I've watched pee-wee basketball or football you are just overjoyed when the little ones do anything great because there is so much anarchy.

However, I do like soccer when there's a little Showtime in there. Like when a player fakes the fuck out of the opposition and makes him fall. :lol: :lol: I hate it though when the opposition goes for the ball and just ends up knocking the player down (tackle)...many times it seems just...to knock the player down.:angry: Then it goes back and forth, back and forth.

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Originally Posted by Busyman

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Originally Posted by j2k4

That kind of excitement is too much like coaching Little League baseball.

I pretty much stopped wearing hats over such foolishness; got tired of leaving my hair in there. :(

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:huh: Wow. I never thought of it that way but it makes sense now.:O

When I've watched pee-wee basketball or football you are just overjoyed when the little ones do anything great because there is so much anarchy.

However, I do like soccer when there's a little Showtime in there. Like when a player fakes the fuck out of the opposition and makes him fall. :lol: :lol: I hate it though when the opposition goes for the ball and just ends up knocking the player down (tackle)...many times it seems just...to knock the player down.:angry: Then it goes back and forth, back and forth.

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And Little League still has the advantage of being free; to play AND watch. ;)

People get excited/bored by different things. I find the constant stop/start of Cricket, Rugby, American Football and Baseball very boring. Soccer stops and starts also of course but it just seems to flow quicker, there is not so much time spent waiting for the action to resume.

On the flip-side the highscoring of Basketball (we do have it here, draws aboout 200 fans per match for a good team) makes me feel very little when points are scored.

One huge advantage soccer does have in the excitement/interest stakes is that it has the only global competition in the world, The World Cup, where almost every nation takes part (I don't count the Olympics because that's just running and stuff). The 1986 World Cup was when I first started watching football. Not playing, watching. I think a lot of people's addiction to watching soccer stems from this tournament.

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Originally Posted by Cheese

People get excited/bored by different things. I find the constant stop/start of Cricket, Rugby, American Football and Baseball very boring. Soccer stops and starts also of course but it just seems to flow quicker, there is not so much time spent waiting for the action to resume.

On the flip-side the highscoring of Basketball (we do have it here, draws aboout 200 fans per match for a good team) makes me feel very little when points are scored.

One huge advantage soccer does have in the excitement/interest stakes is that it has the only global competition in the world, The World Cup, where almost every nation takes part (I don't count the Olympics because that's just running and stuff). The 1986 World Cup was when I first started watching football. Not playing, watching. I think a lot of people's addiction to watching soccer stems from this tournament.

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I think over here, we like scoring.

I've watched a basketball game where there was probably 5 min without a score. I was fucking bored. I like to see good defenses but not alota back and forth without result. Tug-o-war is boring. I want someone to fall in and then we start over.

I used to hate basketball when I was little but then I saw Michael Jordan play and was fucking amazed. I thought how could someone totally demolish another team seemingly individually....after seeing him then the game itself started being amazing. How could one shoot a ball into a hole with proficiency, not much bigger than the ball itself. There's a certain gratification with every single shot. Then you've got the gracefulness, dunking, making people fall from misdirection, buzzer beaters, and showtime....players may make moves that are considered showing off but they do it with such proficiency that it's natural and sometimes gives an advantage....like say a behind the back pass or dribbling through someone else's legs.

As an aside, I think baseball is THE most boring of them. There is no time to the game. Many times when I've gone to a game, shit didn't starting happening until about the 6th inning and going to the game is more appealing then watching it on TV. I think it's more of a chill sport. One where it's about socializing and then jumping up in between. Basketball tends to have me glued to even subtle nuances more.

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Originally Posted by Busyman

I've watched a basketball game where there was probably 5 min without a score. I was fucking bored. I like to see good defenses but not alota back and forth without result.

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i feel the same, but would characterize it thus:

I love good defense, but if the shots that are taken never go in, the defense is, in effect, wasted.

The defense should definitely make the offense work for the shot, but the "O" should only take good shots, too.

I like to watch a good offensive team work a good defensive team.

I remember a couple of years ago watching the Spurs take on...I can't remember who, but the other team was giving San Antonio fits until the Spurs started forcing them to appear to be playing zone, and the refs started calling it and kept calling it until things loosened up.

Duncan is a very heady player. ;)

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Originally Posted by j2k4

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Originally Posted by Busyman

I've watched a basketball game where there was probably 5 min without a score. I was fucking bored. I like to see good defenses but not alota back and forth without result.

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i feel the same, but would characterize it thus:

I love good defense, but if the shots that are taken never go in, the defense is, in effect, wasted.

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Is that statement as mental as it sounds or is it that some hoops take a ball better than others.

Shirley not.

I wonder how many scousers got so excited they had to nick a TV for May 25th 2005.

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Originally Posted by manker

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Originally Posted by j2k4

i feel the same, but would characterize it thus:

I love good defense, but if the shots that are taken never go in, the defense is, in effect, wasted.

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Is that statement as mental as it sounds...

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Not at all.

I merely like to see quality play at both ends of the floor...often good defensive play is not complemented by commensurate offense, and vice-versa.

Such promotes the enjoyment of the spectator and the real, true entertainment value of the sport.

Perhaps the concept is beyond you. :P

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Originally Posted by j2k4

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Originally Posted by manker

Is that statement as mental as it sounds...

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Not at all.

I merely like to see quality play at both ends of the floor...often good defensive play is not complemented by commensurate offense, and vice-versa.

Such promotes the enjoyment of the spectator and the real, true entertainment value of the sport.

Perhaps the concept is beyond you. :P

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Ya, putting a ball thro a hoop is complex.

The perfect defence would negate an offence. Meaning that no baskets are scored. Not meaning that no shots are taken, I mean that the shot taking player is never able to get a shot at the basket without being put off his action and/or he is blocked to an extent such that no points are scored.

I wouldn't call that a wasted effort.

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Originally Posted by manker

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Originally Posted by j2k4

Not at all.

I merely like to see quality play at both ends of the floor...often good defensive play is not complemented by commensurate offense, and vice-versa.

Such promotes the enjoyment of the spectator and the real, true entertainment value of the sport.

Perhaps the concept is beyond you. :P

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Ya, putting a ball thro a hoop is complex.

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Yes it is, provided you aren't right by the basket and even then I see people miss. The basket isn't at eye level...unless you're Yao Ming or Shaq.

Take a defensive player out of the picture and shooting a 3-pointer will still be hard for most. Hell, many of the fucking professionals can't hit a foul shot for shit and it's fucking pathetic.

Then I see some fella that never misses from the 3-point line and he's in the 9th grade. :dabs:

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Originally Posted by Busyman

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Originally Posted by manker

Ya, putting a ball thro a hoop is complex.

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Yes it is, provided you aren't right by the basket and even then I see people miss. The basket isn't at eye level...unless you're Yao Ming or Shaq.

Take a defensive player out of the picture and shooting a 3-pointer will still be hard for most. Hell, many of the fucking professionals can't hit a foul shot for shit and it's fucking pathetic.

Then I see some fella that never misses from the 3-point line and he's in the 9th grade. :dabs:

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No shit, dude.

j2 mentioned the concept, to which I was referring. Getting an image in one's mind's eye of a ball going thro' a hoop isn't too complex for me.

Actually doing it is a bitch - even if I'm standing right by the basket :dabs:

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Originally Posted by manker

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Originally Posted by Busyman

Yes it is, provided you aren't right by the basket and even then I see people miss. The basket isn't at eye level...unless you're Yao Ming or Shaq.

Take a defensive player out of the picture and shooting a 3-pointer will still be hard for most. Hell, many of the fucking professionals can't hit a foul shot for shit and it's fucking pathetic.

Then I see some fella that never misses from the 3-point line and he's in the 9th grade. :dabs:

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No shit, dude.

j2 mentioned the concept, to which I was referring. Getting an image in one's mind's eye of a ball going thro' a hoop isn't too complex for me.

Actually doing it is a bitch - even if I'm standing right by the basket :dabs:

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Boy, you really are a banker, huh? :huh:

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Originally Posted by j2k4

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Originally Posted by manker

No shit, dude.

j2 mentioned the concept, to which I was referring. Getting an image in one's mind's eye of a ball going thro' a hoop isn't too complex for me.

Actually doing it is a bitch - even if I'm standing right by the basket :dabs:

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Boy, you really are a banker, huh? :huh:

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Good one.;)

For a moment, I didn't get it.

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Originally Posted by Busyman

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Originally Posted by j2k4

Boy, you really are a banker, huh? :huh:

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Good one.;)

For a moment, I didn't get it.

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Ya, it's complex. People who work in banks don't play sport too well. As opposed to security guards who positively excel.

But, see, in this case I'm not so sure because all that standing around outside Walmart j2 does, waiting for a 12 year old to steal a Twinkie or whatever, probably plays havoc with his circulation and may mean finger dexterity isn't what it once was.

:schnauz:

Anyhow, the reason I know I suck is because the five-a-side soccer hall we play in once a week doubles as a basketball court and during the warm up I normally throw the ball at the hoop. Bit like Tim Lovejoy at the start of Soccer AM, except with better daps.

I almost never get it in :dabs:

They should make the hoops bigger. Well it's only fair, they tried to make the goals bigger when USA hosted the World Cup.

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Originally Posted by manker

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Originally Posted by Busyman

Good one.;)

For a moment, I didn't get it.

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Ya, it's complex. People who work in banks don't play sport too well. As opposed to security guards who positively excel.

But, see, in this case I'm not so sure because all that standing around outside Walmart j2 does, waiting for a 12 year old to steal a Twinkie or whatever, probably plays havoc with his circulation and may mean finger dexterity isn't what it once was.

:schnauz:

Anyhow, the reason I know I suck is because the five-a-side soccer hall we play in once a week doubles as a basketball court and during the warm up I normally throw the ball at the hoop. Bit like Tim Lovejoy at the start of Soccer AM, except with better daps.

I almost never get it in :dabs:

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How far away are you? Shoot layups first then get farther away.

Don't rag on j2 about his job. I admire the elderly that still contribute to the work force. That social security check has to be supplemented some kinda way. :ermm: Retirement is for biatches and rich folk. :snooty:

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Originally Posted by Cheese

They should make the hoops bigger. Well it's only fair, they tried to make the goals bigger when USA hosted the World Cup.

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Why the fuck did they try to do that? Are our goals bigger or something?

When we play basketball we have to go by the FIFA rules for international play (even though we invented the game:dry: ). Now I heard there are rumblings of the NBA (or as Ali G calls it, The Nationwide Basketball Society) adopted FIFA rules.:blink:

I think they are pissed at losing the last Olympics and World Championships.:ermm:

edit: actually j2 doesn't look that old. I've seen his picture and he looks like Tim Allen's sidekick on Home Improvement.

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Originally Posted by Busyman

Don't rag on j2 about his job. I admire the elderly that still contribute to the work force. That social security check has to be supplemented some kinda way. :ermm: Retirement is for biatches and rich folk. :snooty:

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early retirement would be cool. I dont even have a job but that's what my dad wants. Too bad he's gonna have to help pay my university bills. :(

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Originally Posted by Busyman

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Originally Posted by manker

Ya, it's complex. People who work in banks don't play sport too well. As opposed to security guards who positively excel.

But, see, in this case I'm not so sure because all that standing around outside Walmart j2 does, waiting for a 12 year old to steal a Twinkie or whatever, probably plays havoc with his circulation and may mean finger dexterity isn't what it once was.

:schnauz:

Anyhow, the reason I know I suck is because the five-a-side soccer hall we play in once a week doubles as a basketball court and during the warm up I normally throw the ball at the hoop. Bit like Tim Lovejoy at the start of Soccer AM, except with better daps.

I almost never get it in :dabs:

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How far away are you? Shoot layups first then get farther away.

Don't rag on j2 about his job. I admire the elderly that still contribute to the work force. That social security check has to be supplemented some kinda way. :ermm: Retirement is for biatches and rich folk. :snooty:

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:lol: :D

I wasn't ragging on j2, the good lawd knows how I value the work people do to keep our confectionary secure - I too admire him. There are some pretty darn tough looking pre-teens around nowdays.


As to the shooting of hoops. I'm usually free-throw distance away. I'm not bothered about it and don't really wanna improve ... I'm just aware that I suck at it.

I find it easier the further away you are. Too close, and looking up at the hoop just makes me all dizzy.

I too suck at basketball, it's fine. :dabs:

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Originally Posted by Busyman

I admire the elderly...

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That is your sole positive characteristic and, as it turns out, your saving grace.

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Originally Posted by Barbarossa

I find it easier the further away you are. Too close, and looking up at the hoop just makes me all dizzy.

I too suck at basketball, it's fine. :dabs:

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Use the damn backboard.:angry:

soccer no salary cap =predicable also equals Chelsa unbeatable .... "yawns

and they don't have and kind of playoffs for the EPL

so hers how we make it exciting

have a comp for tipping 50 bucks each person 20 ppl you win a lot at the end

3 points for picking a team thats away from home and get it right
3 points for picking a draw and getting it right
2 points for picking a home team and getting it right
0 points for picking the above and getting it wrong

Money makes it exicitng betting does doesn't it

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Originally Posted by Adster

soccer no salary cap =predicable also equals Chelsa unbeatable .... "yawns

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I think Real Madrid's wage budget is a bit bigger than Chelsea's :unsure:

FA Cup 3rd round today :01:

Giant killing makes it exciting

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Originally Posted by Adster

so hers how we make it exciting

have a comp for tipping 50 bucks each person 20 ppl you win a lot at the end

3 points for picking a team thats away from home and get it right
3 points for picking a draw and getting it right
2 points for picking a home team and getting it right
0 points for picking the above and getting it wrong

Money makes it exicitng betting does doesn't it

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That's so new and innovative, you should make the competition nationwide and call it 'The Pools'.

Millions of people would play it, I reckon.

pools??? isnt that what I swim in???

we call it tips here :P must be australian slang???

well really wasn't my comp was just asked to go in it and they seem to only do the EPL which mind you is hard enough to tip games right

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Originally Posted by Adster

pools??? isnt that what I swim in???

we call it tips here :P must be australian slang???

well really wasn't my comp was just asked to go in it and they seem to only do the EPL which mind you is hard enough to tip games right

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:P

Yeah, it's called the pools over here. In the EPL close season, the people who play it use Aussie soccer instead. Obviously, it's all luck - as you and others mentioned in this thread.

It is really difficult to predict the outcomes of even a small number of matches. Doing a sweepstake of guess the last scorer while watching the game in the pub is the limit of my footie betting :dabs: