This is actually getting a tad worrisome...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,518426,00.html

Initially, I ignored this entire "swine flu" altogether. I figured it was another "SARS" or "bird flu" scare that would pan out to be little or nothing in the long run. However, with Mexico being so close to my home and with an incredible amount of Mexicans being in and around my city (:dry:), this is becoming a hot topic.

Already we have had swine flu related deaths right here in the city and others in cities nearby. (i.e. - Houston, etc...) The local schools are shutting down until at least May 11th and are also suspending all UIL competition until the same date.

Now the "World Health Organization raised its alert level and said a swine flu pandemic was imminent."

Imminent? How do they know that? Sorry, but that sounds scary as fuck. :ermm:

I'm not the sort to ever give a shit about all this stuff, but this sounds a bit more serious. What's the mortality rate of this flu?

EDIT: Of 159 people in Mexico City who contracted the flu, 10 have died in the last 24 hours.

1,311 are currently hospitalized in Mexico City. and 176 have died there. :dabs:

This is a bit reassuring tho' - http://www.foxnews.com/video2/video0...518426,00.html

Seriously, why don't you read the proper news?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8025931.stm

I think it's safe to say there IS going to be a pandemic. The baffling thing at the moment seems to be why are there so many deaths in Mexico, whereas at the moment the symptoms outside of Mexico have been on the whole quite mild?

The danger seems to be that it's going to die down over the summer but then return in the autumn/winter as an even more virulent form. Also if it takes hold in South-East Asia then there's a possibility as I understand it that it could interact with the H5N1 strain (bird-flu, much more virulent, but at the moment not passing from human to human) and spawn an "armageddon" virus :fear:

At the moment, it seems prudent to avoid people with the virus, and make sure your basic hygiene is all in order. Our Government seems to be advising that facemasks are unneccessary for healthy people, but maybe that's because they haven't got any to give out :dabs:

There's a lot of hype, and a lot of panic, but at the moment it's just something to be aware of and to keep your eye on. There's no need to change your behaviour at the moment, is what we're being told.

I think it was recently put into "Phase 5" by the World Health Organisation regarding its spread.

Unfortunately, that was reported in many outlets as "Category 5".. something used by the US with regard to case fatality ratios, causing confusion and mild panic in some quarters.

For info, if it was Category 5 (WHICH IT IS NOT!!!), that would mean something in the region of 2,000,000 deaths in the United States alone if the pandemic hit there in full.

I heard today that it is a H1N1 variant.

Effectively that means that it ISN'T all that easily spread because it has only one receptor site (H1) and even if you get it it ISN'T too difficult for your immune system to defeat because it only has a single active site (N1). Compare that to bird flu (H5N4) which is very easily spread (H5 = five receptor sites) and difficult for your immune system to defeat (N4 = four active sites).

The reason for the relatively high number of deaths is that it seems to have gone almost unnoticed (due to the comparatively mild symptoms) until a large number have been infected. The majority of the deaths have probably been in those who were already in a weakened state and were unable to combat ANY disease.

Certainly in Europe there do not appear to have been any secondary infections to date, all cases have been contracted in Mexico. That tends to bear out the reasoning that it isn't all that infectious. If that's so, and assuming that there is no mutation, this thing could be brought under control very quickly now that people are aware of it.

I do read proper news. Fox is plenty reputable.

So now they've officially changed the name to "H1N1 influenza A" or just "influenza A" to dispell myths and rumors about animals, tainted meat, pigs, etc... Just yesterday Egypt ordered every pig in the country to be immediately killed. :dabs:

The averages seem to be getting a bit more realistic now that alleged cases are being filtered out as influenza A or something else, and the mortality rate is looking to be around 1%. That seems pretty consistent with what I was hearing on talk radio today, that this is another type of influenza that is showing increased strength against our bodies natural defenses compared to the typical "flu".

It also sounds like they're urging similar precautions here as well.

I for one don't understand why they don't tell us which the simptoms are. They probably are the same as in regular flu, but it wouldn't hurt to tell them to people who don't know much about diseases, right? At least that's what it's like here in Europe.

Anyway, I think it's getting a bit exaggerated. sure people died, so we have to be careful, but it's not the plague.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Barbarossa

The baffling thing at the moment seems to be why are there so many deaths in Mexico, whereas at the moment the symptoms outside of Mexico have been on the whole quite mild?

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Poor hospital conditions for one. Plus many chose not to (nor can they) go to the hospital for something that seemed to be a normal flu. Mexico city is a really busy and dense city, after all.

Mmk with all this being worrisome and whatnot, how many people die from "regular flu"?

About 30K/year. However, this strand which is spreading was (is still?) showing to be immune to the "regular" flu vaccinations and showing a much higher mortality rate.

Worth a discussion I think...

BTW, did the WHO declare a pandemic today as expected?

Still at Phase 5 at the moment I think

I wasn't too scared, until somebody from about 15 minutes away from me was diagnosed with it. I'm a little worried now.

15 minutes away by what?

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Originally Posted by Alien5

15 minutes away by what?

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By time, I suppose.