The Slow Death of P2P and Creative Destruction

With the official selling out of TPB, it would be pertinent to address the slow death of P2P as a form of file-sharing. What started as a shock and triumphant revival for P2P (death of OiNK, rise of Waffles/What) is now turning into a slow march to its death. The closing of SweDVDr, Darkside, and now TPB is showing us that we are fighting an uphill battle against forces way beyond our political control. As P2P becomes more and more mainstream, the faster this process will be sped up, and it will become a lot riskier for trackers to stay up.

I'm not saying that P2P will die out entirely, but rather will experience something called creative destruction. Creative destruction is the destruction of current things to pave the way for newer, better things. With legal precendants being established all over the world outlawing P2P, it is almost certain we will see an even better system of file-sharing emerge out of this. Necesity is the mother of all invention, and with TPB "under new management", we can all rest assured that someone, somewhere will invent a faster, more efficient way to swap media.

Just as the computer replaced the typewriter, so will the latest and greatest technology replace P2P. Its not a good time to be a tracker admin right now, and it will only get worse in the future. But the dying out of P2P will be a positive force overall for the file-sharing community.

Original title+ post man. Assuming you didn't just copy and paste that you should post more, it's nice to read well structured posts like this. :happy:

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Originally Posted by TrueSounds

Original title+ post man. Assuming you didn't just copy and paste that you should post more, it's nice to read well structured posts like this. :happy:

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Thanks man.

It was a bit of a rant, but I got my point across.

EDIT: I'll be making more of these types of posts in the future, just observations of an ex-torrenter.

While your post is well written and clearly inspired, I think it is better to analyze and critique your argument rather than support it without good cause, so in between s&d rounds I'll put on my devil's advocate robes.

It seems you conflate p2p and bittorrent at times. I assume by p2p you mean bittorrent and perhaps previous forms of filesharing (napster et. al.). Thus your otherwise comprehensible argument would be that bittorrent will die out but other methods of filesharing will emerge.

I'm not sure whether the typewriter>computer evolution is analogous, because that was a legitimate development protected and made profitable by a ton of capital, market forces and of course, patents and copyrights. So ironically, the analogy you draw was made possible by the laws you are arguing against.

There are two basic ways to share files over the internet: server based or peer based. There are plenty of fast, efficient server based systems, usenet and rapidshare both having their own issues. Bittorrent is certainly the most efficient peer based protocol.

There already are possibilities to decentralize and/or create a private, hopefully more secure network. The problem with decentralization is that it makes it more difficult to trust the content you're downloading and harder to find good speeds. The problem with more private solutions is that they limit you to very few friends or efriends, again reducing content and speed. Until these barriers are overcome or all decent trackers shutdown, I don't see how either of these options will be better than website tracker based bittorrent.

The great things about website tracker based bittorrent are as follows: you know what you're getting, you can connect to peers you "like", there is an economy already established (tracker levels on the macro scale and ratio on the micro), and speeds, you can often maximize your internet bandwidth using BT, which is pretty amazing for p2p. The other great thing about website based trackers is that there are few barriers to entry (overall, although some torrent sites are hard to join). So a lot of peers can find a lot of content very efficiently. You can't have that with current "prototype" technologies.

I'm sure more protocols will come about, but I just don't see one coming anytime soon. It's nice to put together pretty phrases, but I question whether there is the potential for a better p2p protocol. No matter what, there will always be something compromised, whether it is security, access, content or efficiency. Website tracked bittorrent seems to beis clearly the optimal form of p2p and I fail to see how something could surpass it.

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Originally Posted by realityhd

While your post is well written and clearly inspired, I think it is better to analyze and critique your argument rather than support it without good cause, so in between s&d rounds I'll put on my devil's advocate robes.

It seems you conflate p2p and bittorrent at times. I assume by p2p you mean bittorrent and perhaps previous forms of filesharing (napster et. al.). Thus your otherwise comprehensible argument would be that bittorrent will die out but other methods of filesharing will emerge.

I'm not sure whether the typewriter>computer evolution is analogous, because that was a legitimate development protected and made profitable by a ton of capital, market forces and of course, patents and copyrights. So ironically, the analogy you draw was made possible by the laws you are arguing against.

There are two basic ways to share files over the internet: server based or peer based. There are plenty of fast, efficient server based systems, usenet and rapidshare both having their own issues. Bittorrent is certainly the most efficient peer based protocol.

There already are possibilities to decentralize and/or create a private, hopefully more secure network. The problem with decentralization is that it makes it more difficult to trust the content you're downloading and harder to find good speeds. The problem with more private solutions is that they limit you to very few friends or efriends, again reducing content and speed. Until these barriers are overcome or all decent trackers shutdown, I don't see how either of these options will be better than website tracker based bittorrent.

The great things about website tracker based bittorrent are as follows: you know what you're getting, you can connect to peers you "like", there is an economy already established (tracker levels on the macro scale and ratio on the micro), and speeds, you can often maximize your internet bandwidth using BT, which is pretty amazing for p2p. The other great thing about website based trackers is that there are few barriers to entry (overall, although some torrent sites are hard to join). So a lot of peers can find a lot of content very efficiently. You can't have that with current "prototype" technologies.

I'm sure more protocols will come about, but I just don't see one coming anytime soon. It's nice to put together pretty phrases, but I question whether there is the potential for a better p2p protocol. No matter what, there will always be something compromised, whether it is security, access, content or efficiency. Website tracked bittorrent seems to beis clearly the optimal form of p2p and I fail to see how something could surpass it.

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Correct, I use P2P and bittorrent interchangeably throughout, though I do mean bittorrent.

You seem to have missed the point. There are CURRENTLY only two forms of file-sharing. CURRENTLY bittorrent in the only feasible solution to this. The point of my argument is that something revolutionary will come by and replace bittorrent because thats just how progress works. Perhaps there will be a compromise between the two, or something might come out of left-field. But the fact remains: bittorrent is losing its major battles. It has become entirely too mainstream, and as a result, has become the punching bag for the media and politicians.

Bittorrent has significant flaws. First, it relies on the collective upload bandwidth of the swarm, which can be very low. Case in point: many of us have downloaded a new movie, only to get stuck downloading at 12 KB/s because there is only one seeder (and 200 leechers).

Saying there is an economy in this system is ridiculous, if not a gross exaggeration. There are micro "economies" everywhere if we go by your example, from internet forums to social circles. It has an established community, but so did Napster. That could also be part of the problem.

I'm not saying an entirely new protocol needs to be invented, but rather intengrating new technologies together in ways that make sense.

Also, a devils advocate is always appreciated ;)

EDIT: I was talking with a friend, who said that DC++ (jokingly or otherwise) could make a comeback.

just a quick point..... this does take alot of the heat off private trackers, because our ISPs won't be able to tell the difference betwen stuff we download from TPB that we pay for , and stuff we download from TL that we don't, will they?

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Originally Posted by no_bother

just a quick point..... this does take alot of the heat off private trackers, because our ISPs won't be able to tell the difference betwen stuff we download from TPB that we pay for , and stuff we download from TL that we don't, will they?

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Very good point, but like the "hydra" theory suggests, there will be two or three more big public trackers to replace TPB. In which case I think we'll see tensions escalating between legal authorities and torrenters.

Its only 1 site thats done what its done, remember suprnova they done something similar and most were saying the same, it wont last, that was 4-5 years ago now.

OK everything has to end sooner or later, but i think BT will be here for awhile longer yet (even if something new does come along tomorrow), Emule is still going, Limewire is still going, so why not BT.

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Originally Posted by stopher54

Bittorrent has significant flaws. First, it relies on the collective upload bandwidth of the swarm, which can be very low. Case in point: many of us have downloaded a new movie, only to get stuck downloading at 12 KB/s because there is only one seeder (and 200 leechers).

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:blink:
Ever used a fast private tracker? What you call a flaw allows you to download new movies with almost unlimited download speed. Bundled upload bandwith is the only way to achieve that. In fact there's so much unused upload bandwith that you will more likely end up with 200 seeders, you being the only leecher and max out your download speed. Especially on new torrents. An initial uploader with 12 kb/s is pretty rare in the private tracker scene.

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Originally Posted by Polarbear

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Originally Posted by stopher54

Bittorrent has significant flaws. First, it relies on the collective upload bandwidth of the swarm, which can be very low. Case in point: many of us have downloaded a new movie, only to get stuck downloading at 12 KB/s because there is only one seeder (and 200 leechers).

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:blink:
Ever used a fast private tracker? What you call a flaw allows you to download new movies with almost unlimited download speed. Bundled upload bandwith is the only way to achieve that. In fact there's so much unused upload bandwith that you will more likely end up with 200 seeders and you being the only leecher and max out your download speed. Especially on new torrents. An initial uploader with 12 kb/s is pretty rare in the private tracker scene.

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Yes, actually, I ran one for a bit.

Stoi, I see what you are saying. People have claimed that the "sky was falling" before, BT was doomed, etc. I'm not saying that. I'm saying that it might be around for another three or four years before it gets phased out by a better service. What we are seeing is the beginning of the end, and the start of newer and better innovations.

but how do you know, we may be all dead by 2012 lol

but emule is still around, limewire is, yes the heat is coming down, but again, its only 1 site, yes they got to the other swedish trackers after the courtcase, but they are starting to come back, and others taking their place.

and as far as i know Darkside never went down under pressure, they went down because the owner was fed up for the most part, and they could not compete with trackers with P2L for donations. (there is a thread on here regarding it somewhere.

If it does all collapse around us, we move on, but i think by the time august comes, there will be 2-3 more public trackers like TPB, so plenty of places for the users to go to.

btw I have been to TPB once since it opened, and that was just to their page with their replies to the RIAA and MPAA, I have never actually searched or even seen the browse page, so people can survive without it, its not the end of the world (yet lol)

lol

emule, DC++, limewire, etc aren't nearly as popular as bittorrent is now. They may have been at one point (remember the golden age of kazaa, morpheus, and limewire?), but most people consider bittorrent to be the forerunner for file-sharing now. Nothing will collapse around us, but rather we'll see a migration of people from bittorrent to newer technologies. I have a feeling BCG and other private sites will be around for quite some time, since they have very dedicated communities.

I'll leave my argument there if anyone wants to pick up on it. I'm more interested in what other people have to say about this.

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Originally Posted by stopher54

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Originally Posted by Polarbear

:blink:
Ever used a fast private tracker? What you call a flaw allows you to download new movies with almost unlimited download speed. Bundled upload bandwith is the only way to achieve that. In fact there's so much unused upload bandwith that you will more likely end up with 200 seeders and you being the only leecher and max out your download speed. Especially on new torrents. An initial uploader with 12 kb/s is pretty rare in the private tracker scene.

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Yes, actually, I ran one for a bit.

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You know what filesharing is based on? On releases. May they come from the scene or from P2P releasers. It all starts with a release on one(!) harddisk somewhere. If this file isn't initially uploaded to a server or a tracker with good speed, there's no other system in the world that can make the transfer faster.

If you ran a tracker where new movies were uploaded with 12kb/s you should have looked for more dedicated uploaders. That's definitely not a flaw in the bittorrent system.

well my closing point as well, eveyone from TPB may very well go back to Limewire/Emule/DC++ etc etc.

lets put it this way, 20mil unique hits a day, allegedally to TPB, Private trackers = 1mil tops and probably a hell of a lot less than that (unless you count puretna which has quite a few), so there are a hell of a lot of people (noobs to us i suppose) that have no idea about private trackers, and would probably never know about TPB if it wasnt plastered all over the news all the time, but most of those will go back to using those programmes, so what once was the driving force, BT, will not be anymore, and what it overtook (Emule/Limewire etc) will get all those old people back and be the driving force again.

A new Public tracker wont be an overnight success thats for sure, so in the meantime people will revert back to what they were doing before, so inturn, taking the heat off BT and turning it back on the above programes (or here is hoping anyway lol)

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EDIT: I was talking with a friend, who said that DC++ (jokingly or otherwise) could make a comeback.

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which i have just seen you touched on there.

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Originally Posted by Polarbear

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Originally Posted by stopher54

Yes, actually, I ran one for a bit.

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You know what filesharing is based on? On releases. May they come from the scene or from P2P releasers. It all starts with a release on one(!) harddisk somewhere. If this file isn't initially uploaded to a server or a tracker with good speed, there's no other system in the world that can make the transfer faster.

If you ran a tracker where new movies were uploaded with 12kb/s you should have looked for more dedicated uploaders. That's definitely not a flaw in the bittorrent system.

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I'm not denying this. In fact, I totally agree with what you just said. The case I made was a bit extreme, but it served its point in context. That doesn't mean bittorrent won't get slowly phased out as new technologies are introduced.

/closing point

I don't think anyone expects that bittorrent will last forever.. that's a pretty shallow 'point' to make.

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Originally Posted by TrueSounds

I don't think anyone expects that bittorrent will last forever.. that's a pretty shallow 'point' to make.

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But that is exactly the point. We are seeing the beginning of this process, and the start of creative destruction in the bittorrent world. In fact, on a smaller scale, creative destruction worked wonders when OiNK went down (and a far more innovative What.cd took its place).

the topic title is misleading. P2P is not gonna die.Yes bittorrent, will someday have a successor, its unenviable. Technology always moves forward. Some new protocol will be invented to better suit file-sharer's needs like more anon., easiler to use, faster, etc.

While i agree with you that times haven't been that good for BT,i really don't think BT as we know it is going to go anywhere.You'll be suprised as to the number of people who download stuff illegally but are yet to understand what torrents are,these are the people who generated traffic for thepiratebay once they discovered torrents(20 million/day they say?) and there are still many more out there .

You'll even be more suprised as to how difficult it is to start paying for non-existent stuff(intellectual property) once you've gone pirate.Ask the swedes they'll tell you.

The way i see it is that the n00bs of today are the pros of tomorrow and the curious of today the n00bs of tomorrow.Call it a cycle and as far as i know demand shall forever beget supply(unless of course you wanna tell me that the resilient scene <the source if you will> is finally gonna crumble too?)mh...kinda explains why the feds think it makes more sense to go after the drug cartel(the scene) than you the druggie(torrenter),at least they understand we are the victims.If you need evidence just look at who stopped carrying cameras to cinemas and who all of a sudden TS's everything thats out.The scene is laying low while P2P is gradually growing and having all the fun.

The evolutionary scenario here is simple,no matter how many people quit bittorrent there is going to be a dozen more wanting to get in.Dont forget that not many people(even pros) care as to how secure they were while getting the files just that they have something for popcorn hour.

Dirty sexy money is finally making a comeback and you can trust i'll still be leeching it from somewhere 5 seasons from this one ;).

Not to sound rude, but I've read very similar articles 5 years ago when suprnova shut down. And then again after the lokitorrents fiasco, and again after "Operation D-Elite".

People need to relax - either BT will evolve and survive or something new will replace it.

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Originally Posted by stopher54

I'm saying that it might be around for another three or four years before it gets phased out by a better service. What we are seeing is the beginning of the end, and the start of newer and better innovations.

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seeing 1 major public tracker go down and assuming it's the beginning of the end for all torrenting and that something will replace it is a huge leap and logically makes no sense. if theres a clear and steady trend of this happening 2-3 years from now then you might be able to make your argument but atm it's far too early to know what, if anything, will come and take the place of torrents.

Like someone meantioned, the thread title is misleading. P2P will not die, not even slowly.

Second, BT will never die out completely. It will probably be something used amongst friends eventually (something like I hear revolt is doing, that's bound to last for a very long time).

Third, I'd give BT more than 3-4 years. But, yes, I agree a new, better filesharing method will emerge eventually and a big migration of users will occur then.