On April 1, 1992 New Jersey's minimum wage increased from $4.25 to $5.05 per hour.
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Relative to stores in Pennsylvania, fast food restaurants in New Jersey increased employment by 13 percent.
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No one has posited any plausible reason
(yes they have, it just depends on who decides what is plausible) that an employer whose wage bill has just gone up would respond by . . . taking on more, now more expensive, workers. Without such a mechanism. . . and colour me suspicious that we will find one . . . we are left with two possibilities:
1) There is some other effect, such as a boom in New Jersey's fast food sector, that masked the employment drop
2) There's something wrong with the data.
3) Poor people are disproportionately likely to shop at places that pay minimum wage, now they have more to spend so sales rise.
Number 1 seems possible, and number 2 seems very likely, because they relied on survey data,
and surveys are notoriously unreliable. Just ask the folks at
(hang on, I'll just find something completely irrelevant) Coca-Cola, who did the most extensive surveys in history, and unveiled "New Coke" only after every single study had reported that consumers overwhelmingly favoured the new taste. A later study
(read: unreliable survey) using more-reliable payroll data (but funded by the retail/restaurant industry
(who, of course, don't have any interest in the ourcome), and involving
a smaller data set (smaller because it excluded data which didn't fit the required model?)) found
the effect you'd expect (read: we want you to believe): minimum wage employment in New Jersey went down compared to Pennsylvania. Other criticisms of the study's methodology helped to seriously weaken their assertion that there was no measurable employment effect. Most of the studies that have been done in the past have tended to reinforce the economic conventional wisdom.
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