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Thread: 'Zero Day' Hasn't Budged, Probably won't for 'Forever'

  1. #1
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    A few articles of late trumpeting '1000 Days Retention'....

    http://www.slyck.com/story2170_The_M...roup_Retention

    But as I pointed out a while ago, the real 'figure' should be on which day (approximately) that a retention goes 'back to'.

    The actual 'day' is a bit different for every server plant, and of course there are various 'fades' ('gaps') in the retention, but it generally goes back to around August, 2008, or thereabouts.

    As long as a plant doesn't suffer a major, unrecoverable, loss (pretty near impossible with multiple plants on multiple continents), and even with usenet continuing huge leaps in traffic (while storage costs continue the downward spiral), we should be sitting here 3+ years from now with articles proclaiming '2000 days retention!'.

  2. Newsgroups   -   #2
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    the real 'figure' should be on which day (approximately) that a retention goes 'back to'.
    In theory, that should be a fixed-in-stone date that never changes. But in reality it has changed somewhat. Highwinds recently "back-spooled" retention to Aug 2008. About a year ago, Readnews also back-spooled about two months onto its retention. And both providers have in the past seemed to have had retention erode - and then return - at the outer limits.

    "Day-Zero" was August 7, 2008. That's the age of oldest binary post that any provider (in this case Giganews) has on its servers. August 15, 2008 is the next oldest date - originally Astraweb's alone but now shared by three separate NSPs (and maybe more on the way?)

    Similar to Moore's Law, usenet retention (measured in days) had been roughly doubling every year for the last decade. But according to that formula, once retention surpassed a year, the yearly increase would need to become greater than a year's retention -- so the "point of no return" was reached in 2009, and from that moment on there would be infinitely expanding retention with no end in sight. So articles will never again need to be retired off the major's servers.

    I'd like to make another prediction:

    At some point in the future all this massive retention will become worthless. As removing all this material is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel, more and more files in usenet's back catalog will be DMCA'd until practically nothing is left.

    Then it will be back to the old days, and we'll once again be required to grab stuff fast before it gets deleted from the servers. I'm sure the main reason this has not happened up until now is because the copyright cops have had much bigger dragons to slay. But as usenet continues to emerge from the shadows and become a mainstream file-sharing mechanism, it's head will eventually be on the chopping block some day.

  3. Newsgroups   -   #3
    s removing all this material is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel, more and more files in usenet's back catalog will be DMCA'd until practically nothing is left.

    Then it will be back to the old days, and we'll once again be required to grab stuff fast before it gets deleted from the servers
    i already posted in one topic that posters can avoid DMCA takedowns like 99% if they take certain simple precautions

    BUT

    Astraweb has made it simple and safe for us ATM and at the same time has spoiled all usenet community.
    Last edited by Hypatia; 04-18-2011 at 08:07 AM.

  4. Newsgroups   -   #4
    Quote Originally Posted by zot View Post
    the real 'figure' should be on which day (approximately) that a retention goes 'back to'.
    [snip]
    I'd like to make another prediction:

    At some point in the future all this massive retention will become worthless. As removing all this material is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel, more and more files in usenet's back catalog will be DMCA'd until practically nothing is left.

    Then it will be back to the old days, and we'll once again be required to grab stuff fast before it gets deleted from the servers. I'm sure the main reason this has not happened up until now is because the copyright cops have had much bigger dragons to slay. But as usenet continues to emerge from the shadows and become a mainstream file-sharing mechanism, it's head will eventually be on the chopping block some day.
    Yup, and the USPs could be forced to block uploaders of new infringing content (this has already happened with some USPs) after the clowns have DMCA'd all the good shit. After all, like ~70-80% of the content there is posted by like a few dozen of uploaders.

    And no, AW is not safer than any other USP having multi-million dollar infrastructure physically located in the "land of the free".

  5. Newsgroups   -   #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by zot View Post
    I'd like to make another prediction:

    At some point in the future all this massive retention will become worthless. As removing all this material is as easy as shooting fish in a barrel, more and more files in usenet's back catalog will be DMCA'd until practically nothing is left.
    You know, I've searched and searched for thing that have been 'DCMAed' and found.... nothing. Now, maybe it's because the things I search for (lossless/pureCD music, HD movies) are not on some 'hit list', but I would think not. Sure, there have been some 'high profile' take downs, but for every one of those, there are literally thousands (tens of thousands?) that haven't been. It shows me that the effort being put toward the current process is... next to nothing.

    I'm sure that those files you keep and eye on for scope of retention aren't PD, so how long have they been up without being acted upon... those 1000 days. If I was someone paying someone to sent out takedown orders, I'd fire the folks who obviously aren't working worth anything.

    So, except for that 1/1,000,000th of one percent, it's not hardly worth talking about, it's below the general 'noise' level.

  6. Newsgroups   -   #6
    I wouldnt say that "it's not hardly worth talking about" in terms of all console games, HBO tv series, many mainstream movies.

  7. Newsgroups   -   #7
    I don't think the Usenet is going anywhere any time soon and I don't think we will see any major noticeable clamping down on user generated content. The notion that binaries will get DMCA'd to death is not a very likely reality - looking into the future I think we are far more likely to see the NSPs of the Usenet take us into the next evolution of paid for and legal content consumption. If we consider for a moment that all the great building blocks for an extremely awesome content distribution system are already in place in terms of speed, storage, reliability and content availability, the reality of the next step would seem obvious once the old and busted copyright laws have been rewritten to account for the internet and the realization that buying plastic disc to watch a single movie over and over seems a dated concept. Once the MPAA and the RIAA realize that we no longer live in an 8-Track, VHS world then the Usenet will be the obvious go to to allow them to deliver massive amounts of content at a subscription price that millions would jump at the chance to pay. We already pay for access - Usenet has the makings of a awesome White Hat backend for stellar content.
    Last edited by nntpjunkie; 04-21-2011 at 04:36 PM.
    Digital World...You can't handle the Digital World! What did your Mom buy you a PUTER for Christmas!
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  8. Newsgroups   -   #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hypatia View Post
    I wouldnt say that "it's not hardly worth talking about" in terms of all console games, HBO tv series, many mainstream movies.
    Okay, since I don't do 'games', perhaps those publishers are much more aggressive. I'll grant you that.

    But ever since I dropped my HBO (and Cinemax) subscription several (7+) years ago, I've been 'sucking up' many the series (first in SD, then nothing but HD the last 3+ years), and I'm not that 'quick' on getting them (I even go several weeks with Bill Mahr's program unless it 'makes news'). Never have had a problem, and there is usually at least a half dozen or more postings/entries on several usenet 'tracking' sites.

    And since the weekly NFL preview program moved over to Showtime this last year, the same with it. Zero problems for years with HBO, and no problems with Showtime. Maybe there's some folks lurking out there to DMCA the things, but from what I see, again, pretty piss poor if they are targeting anything.

    And, really, in the last 5 years of d/l'ing BR movies (both full/ISO and MKV recodes), I've yet to hit anything that, after getting the NZB, storing it off on my HD for weeks/months before deciding to grab it, no problems with anything. I tend to think, that with Netflix, Blockbuster, etc., that it's really a problem, except that those rental outfits are being slow to handle a lot of what's actually available on the consumer market (taking weeks/months to actual have a certain BD movie).

  9. Newsgroups   -   #9
    blurays are mostly not affected for some reason

    as for HBO i guess its pure luck on your side. Just yesterday i tried 5 nbzs from HBO shows(true blood), via nzbmatrix - all dmcaed =(
    dmcaed poorly( only first 1-2 blocks are removed) but not all of them can be repaired.
    Last edited by Hypatia; 04-22-2011 at 06:13 AM.

  10. Newsgroups   -   #10
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    Some software companies have been hitting usenet hard for years. Not so much the cheap shareware stuff - I'm talking about the professional/specialty software that costs thousands of dollars per license. Here's the situation: If you download it off torrents or ed2k, you're sure to get a nasty letter from your ISP, and if you download it off usenet (Highwinds in particular) every copy will likely give you an "article not found" error. It's funny that the same title that's been completely scrubbed off Highwinds servers can be found in abundance on file-hosting sites - and probably, I'm sure, other lesser-known usenet providers.

    Now that I think about it, there have been a few titles that were missing from Binsearch (I checked several times) but present on other NZB search engines. Could be just a glitch ... or perhaps a takedown.

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