Sheikh Yassin Assassination

[cpt_azad]

BTW, I'm not Israeli. I realize that in your mind only Israelis could possibly see Israel's right to defend itself but you've gotta open your eyes to the rest of the world. It just ain't that simple.

finally somebody said the right thing! now let's end all this crap (unless someone can build a machine to stop the fighting in the middle east, good luck with that), this war will go on until one side is wiped out, there's sadly nothing we can do (unless one of us on the forums, or someone smart enough, becomes president of america and stops the bloodshed, which ain't gonna happen soon) to stop it. so please, stop flaming each other!

[leftism]

Putty.. your unbelievable. This is from the same source.

Suicide bombing statistics

March 2004 - 10 dead 16 wounded
February 2004 - 8 dead 60 wounded
January 2004 - 11 dead 50 wounded
December 2003 0
November 203 - 0
October 2003 - 21 dead 60 wounded
September 2003 16 dead 80 wounded
August 2003 23 dead 130 wounded
July 2003 - 0
June 2003 17 dead >100 wounded
May 2003 14 dead 93 wounded
April 2003 0
March 2003 - 17 dead 53 wounded
February 2003 - 0
January 2003 - 23 dead 120 wounded

Thats not what I call a decrease.

You've already got more dead people in February - March 2004 than the same period in 2003 and we've still got a week of March left.

What next? Are you going to round it up into years, 5 month segments, 3 month segments? Whatever it takes to twist the figures round to your way of thinking eh?

You keep telling yourself that those illegal "targeted assassinations" are a defence and will bring peace and security to Israel.

The rest of us will choose to live in the real world.

[putty]

You're a joke.

I gave you Btselem stats. You didn't like it. You asked for IDF stats. I gave them to you.

They all prove my point. Israeli civilian deaths are decreasing in number.

But because Feb-March 04 has produced more deaths than Feb-March 03 then all others figures are wrong. Everything is based on Feb-March 03 vs. Feb-March 04. That's it.

Contest the IDF figures that show the 2002 (451 deaths) vs 2003 (231) vs 2004 (pace of 120) deaths. Please do.

Nah, just point to a randomly chosen 2 months (you even "randomly" selected Feb 03 which had no successful bombing) and state that the overall decrease from 451 to 231 to a pace of 120 isn't happening. Un-fucking-real.

You didn't pass Statistics class, did you?

I'm surprised even by you. I gave you all the numbers you requested. But you will only believe what you want to. Sigh.

[leftism]

Putty, If you look at all the figures I provided, not just February and March, you can see that it goes up, down, up, down.

Use your amazing statistical powers and plot it onto a graph. Look at the 'curve' it produces.

You think peace and security can be achieved by illegal targeted assassinations that often end up killing innocent bystanders.... sure of course they can.

By the same rationale peace can be achieved by Palestinians targeting IDF forces and taking out a few civilians in the process.

Logic is obviously not your strong point.

We should have this discussion again in a months time and see how effective the killing of Yassin was in decreasing the number of suicide attacks.

[putty]

You want a graph? Plot 2002, 2003 and 2004 on one axis. Plot 451, 231 and 120 on the other axis. Let us know what you see.

So sad.

Can someone else help this boy out?

[Biggles]

Whilst on the whole I think I would prefer not to wade in the statistical quagmire, I would point out that they can be something of a double edged sword.

I raised the question as to why Israel deemed it necessary to make this move now. The statistics above would suggest that the tide of Hammas suicide bombers has been slowed to a trickle. Suggesting that perhaps a reduction in volunteers (perhaps hopeful that the proposed Israeli pull out is the start of the "better day") coupled with better security has begun to take effect. So why, then, stamp on the hornets' nest? Why undo the good work? Why make bombing a holy cause once more?

However, the deed is done and the political implications will become apparent all too soon. The first move has been made by Hammas by replacing Yassin with someone far more militant than he was. (Whilst trying to find a better man is hard - it would seem it is always easy to find a worse man)

If the net result is more war not less I think Sharron will find his short term gains with the radicals who prop up his government are offset by losses at the next the election.

There are many Palestinians who would like to be moderate and have a "two state" solution. They are not getting a lot of encouragement from the current Israeli administration. The argument that there must be no attacks before Sharron will talk is either insane or calculated politics. This allow a tiny minority of extremists to always dictate the terms. The extremists only become isolated when the Palestinian majority has something that is too good to throw away. It seems that an Israeli Prime Minister that is brave enough to try and go down that route is as likely to be killed by Israeli extremists as Palestinian ones.

In short, I am not optimistic that an end is in sight. I hope I will be proved wrong.

[leftism]

Originally posted by putty
You want a graph? Plot 2002, 2003 and 2004 on one axis. Plot 451, 231 and 120 on the other axis. Let us know what you see.

Your assuming theres going to be an average of 30 deaths per 3 months for 2004. Are you a fortune teller as well?

If we use your "average per 3 months" method then there would have been 120 deaths in 2003. Didn't turn out that way did it?

Like I said before, we'll revisit this issue in a months time once the effects of Yassin's death has played out.

I think your 30 deaths per 3 months prediction will be looking a bit silly by then. But as long as your thirst for revenge and more bloodshed is sated.. thats the main thing eh?

[putty]

Biggles, an argument could be made that since Israel is doing right and successful suicide attacks are decreasing, this is the worst time to let up. When you see that you are making progress, you have to press on until the job is finished.

Imagine any army unit saying "well the enemy is now weakened, let's go home". This is why it was so stupid of Bush to go into Iraq before having complete control of Al Qaeda. But that's for another thread.

You ask "why stamp on a hornet's nest?". Because if you want to get rid of the hornets, you don't walk away with them stinging you only a couple times/month instead of the usual 4 times/month. Once you blast the nest with raid you make sure they're dead before walking away.

It's not like Hamas has led up. They're just not as successful as they used to be. Perhaps it's because they're now relying on 14 year olds like yesterday.

Regarding the tiny minority of terrorists dictating the terms, I respectfully disagree. I think that you give Arafat too little credit. You do remember the Peres/Netanyahu election campaign of 1996 (?) when the right-wingers were silenced and embarassed by the Rabin murder. The country was ready to elect the ultimate dove (Peres) in a landslide but wave after wave of suicide attack killed dozens within just 2 months. Eventually Netanyahu (the hawk) was elected because he could "bring security". This was way before the PA police infrastructure was targetted by Israel beginning in 2001. The PA police was in full force but where the fuck were they? Where was Arafat? Do you think the Hamas and Islamic Jihad hid the fact that they were behind the bombings?

Arafat sat on his ass and watched the dove Peres lose credibility every time an attack struck. With Peres in office, Arafat would've had anything he wanted.

There will be a 2 state solution. Barak offered it and was not assassinated. Arafat thought the Taba offer was a good one and even accepted it. Too bad it was 18 months after the offer was made.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Sto...741842,00.html

It will happen again and hopefully sooner than you'd think. Sorry, but you're gonna be proved wrong.

Lefty: then ignore 2004 and look only at 2002 vs 2003. and then tell us that there is no reduction in successful attacks. they're your stats... you requested them.

[Biggles]

Putty

If I am proved wrong, it will be my pleasure to try to be the first (on here at least) to congratulate you on your perspicacity.

[Monty11]

RE: One mans terrorist another mans freedom fighter.
There is a huge difference between the planned targeting of women, children, and the elderly and collateral damage at a time of conflict. In response to Leftism, If the arab-muslems fighting for their "Liberation" would target soldiers and goverment that they percieve as terrorists, then one who claims to see fault and merit on both sides can try to draw some kind of moral comparison.

In response to your constant reminder that two wrongs don't make a right I would like to know who and by what authority will take the high ground and dictate right and wrong to the world. :gunsmile: