Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)
2004 Presidential Election
Electoral Votes:
Bush
213
Kerry
311
Too Close To Call
Nevada (5)
Too Close To Call
Colorado (9)
Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%
The nationwide telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2
Here's how we got there...
2004: Repeat of 2000 Figures:George Bush (Electoral Vote) UT5
KS6
WY3
MS6
ID4
SC8
AK3
IN11
NE5
KY8
ND3
AL9
MT3
GA15
SD3
LA9
OK7
TX 34
John Kerry (Electoral Vote)ME4
MD10
VT3
CT7
IL21
HI4
RI4
NY31
DE3
MA12
NJ15
DC3
CA55
Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142
Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172
2004 Battleground States:
2000
2004
Our Call
Bush Electoral Votes
Kerry Electoral Votes
%Margin
%Margin
Arizona (10)*
Bush + 6.28%
Bush 6%
10
-
Arkansas (6)*
Bush + 5.44%
Bush 3%
6
-
Colorado (9)
Bush + 8.36%
Too Close To Call
-
-
Florida (27)
Bush + 0.01%
Kerry .1%
Trending Kerry
-
27
Iowa (7)
Gore + 0.31%
Kerry 5%
-
7
Michigan (17)
Gore + 5.13%
Kerry 6%
-
17
Minnesota (10)
Gore + 2.4%
Kerry 6%
-
10
Missouri (11)*
Bush + 3.34%
Bush 3%
11
-
Nevada (5)
Bush + 3.55%
Too Close To Call
-
-
New Hampshire (4) *
Bush + 1.27%
Kerry 5%
-
4
New Mexico (5)
Gore + 0.06%
Kerry 3%
-
5
North Carolina (15)*
Bush + 12.83%
Bush 3%
15
-
Oregon (7)*
Gore + 0.44%
Kerry 10%
-
7
Ohio (20)
Bush + 3.51%
Bush 2%
Trending Kerry
-
20
Pennsylvania (21)
Gore + 4.17%
Trending Kerry
-
21
Tennessee (11)*
Bush + 3.86%
Bush 4%
11
-
Virginia (13)*Bush + 7.00%
Bush
13
-
Washington (11)*
Gore + 5.58%
Kerry 11%
-
11
West Virginia (5)*
Bush + 6.32%
Bush 4%
5
-
Wisconsin (10)
Gore + 0.22%
Kerry 6%
-
10
Battleground State Totals
71
139
Current Grand Total:
213
311
* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.
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