One extremely interested observer in the war between Russia and Georgia hasn't vocally taken sides in the conflict. Given the war's timing, you might call this country's interest – or lack thereof – in the conflict "sporting". But in reality, Georgia versus Russia provides a convenient simulation for this great power's options of dealing with the western backed irritant on its own perimeter.
Beyond the combatants and other former Soviet Republics, no nation is more interested in the Russia-Georgia conflict's global fallout than China. China's relationship with Taiwan resembles Russia's ties to Georgia. In both situations, the big state feels a sense of grievance over the very existence of its puny neighbour and resents outsiders that act as its self-appointed protectors.
The Caucuses conflict offers China a realistic model for what it can expect if it the Taiwan situation turns violent. The parallels aren't perfect, but there's a close enough fit for China to pay very close attention, particularly to the international consequences of Russia's humiliation of Georgia. With China watching, the US and it allies need to get their response to Russia absolutely right.
The crisis may have its roots in a failure to communicate. Georgia and its president Mikheil Saakashvili may have grossly overestimated the west's commitment to defending its borders and interests. Saakashvili may have equated the west's promise of Nato membership with mutual defence benefits. Or, at least, Saakashvili may have believed that Russia believed the west would fight for Georgia. Although the US insists Georgia is still a candidate for Nato, it's now comedic or criminal to imagine putting a Georgian finger on the trigger to set American, British, French, German and other European troops firing on Russian forces.
Shift the focus to Taiwan, an island that China considers a renegade province, and the proposition seems equally ludicrous, while the scope for miscalculation appears similarly broad. America has been purposely vague about what it would do in the event of a mainland military threat to Taiwan and its 23 million people. A dozen years ago, China conducted missile tests in the Taiwan Strait ahead of Taiwan's first presidential election. As unbelievable as that seems, it's even more incredible to recall that the US sent an aircraft carrier group warning China to back off.
Today Taiwan is a de facto separate country, while China claims it's still part of the nation. Keeping the peace relies on both governments preserving the status quo: China won't attempt reunification by force, and Taiwan won't move toward official independence. Within those rules, everyone trades and invests together peacefully. But rules are made to be broken, and even if nobody explicitly crosses the line, ticklish situations can arise. For example, China could decide that Taiwan's ambition to join the World Trade Organisation constitutes a move toward independence.
When Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov urged the US to choose between "support for a virtual project" in Georgia and its "real partnership" with Russia on key issues such as nuclear negotiations with Iran and North Korea, he could have been China's foreign minister Yang Jiechi speaking about the US, China and Taiwan. The unprecedented turnout of world leaders for the Olympics in Beijing indicates that the global establishment desperately wants "real partnership" with China. It's hard to imagine that Taiwan would be allowed to interfere.
Deepened economic ties between the US, EU and China over the past decade mean all sides have more to lose in a conflict. While moving toward a consumer economy, China still remains heavily dependent on exports to developed countries. Developed economies depend on China for cheap goods to meet consumer demand while controlling inflation and maximising corporate profits. With bricks and mortar investment in the mainland, western companies would risk expropriation in the event of a crisis. China also holds trillions of dollars in US Treasury securities, which it could dump on the market to depress US bond prices and raise Uncle Sam's financing costs. A fire sale of Treasury notes would cost China dearly, so the holding acts as a sort of financial mutual suicide pact neither side wants to test.
Russia's huge energy reserves may give it even greater economic leverage than China, especially over Europe. Therefore Russia may get off a little easier than China would for its military excesses. If the US and EU show spine despite this leverage, then China can expect to pay a bigger price.
China will particularly be watching threats to punish Russia in international organisations and institutions, where China participates more deeply than Russia. While Russia hopes to join the WTO, China entered it in 2001, boosting foreign investment exponentially and making economic reform seem irreversible. Sanctions would be embarrassing, but also potentially harmful to investment and trade.
"If Russia does not step back from its aggressive posture and actions in Georgia, the US-Russian relationship could be adversely affected for years to come," US defence secretary Robert Gates warned last Thursday. That's tough talk, but so far, there's only been talk and empty ceasefire proposals as Russia has advanced beyond disputed territory into Georgia proper. There's "no prospect" of US military intervention, Gates added emphatically. The Russians are writing the script here. The US and EU are in no position to edit it, and it would be hard for China not to notice.
Russia benefits because the US is involved in two wars already and has neither the troops nor the stomach for a third. China may be tempted to act soon, while US commitments and its need for China's help on North Korea and other issues are great. But the US can still muster more than blankets and cots in response to aggression.
Today's signing of a US-Poland agreement on missile defence and mutual defence is a reminder that the US has some weapons to counter Russian ambitions. For China, it's a reminder that assertiveness on Taiwan will trigger reactions from its neighbours. The two biggest neighbours, US allies Japan and South Korea, have long histories of hostility toward China. Additionally, other countries on its flanks, including Southeast Asia could be spooked by military action in Taiwan. Imagine Vietnam reopening the naval base at Cam Rahn Bay to its old enemy the US in response to China's belligerence.
The most hopeful sign of avoiding a replay of the Georgian war between China and Taiwan is warming cross-strait relations, particularly since Ma Ying-jeou took office as Taiwan's president in May. The better the two sides get along, the less likely outsiders can tempt either side to throw a spanner into the works. The outcome in Georgia will illustrate the cost of miscalculation.
If Russia humiliates Georgia at little cost, it could inspire China to press Taiwan when the opportunity beckons. Taiwan's allies, like Georgia's, are eager to remain friends with the big player neighbour and not eager for a fight. If the current sunshine over the Taiwan Strait gives way to clouds, that could drive the little player to do something desperate, as Georgia did, before it loses whatever leverage it has, and China to take advantage of the opening.
To avoid a replay, the US need to show Taiwan and China that it wants to be a dependable friend to each, but that friendship depends on following the rules. That means Russia and Georgia both have to pay a price for their misadventure in the Caucuses. Otherwise, Taiwan will pay a far bigger one.
en(un)lightened
Originally Posted by bigboab
They should read our posts to get the truth.
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